Title race
Champion probability from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament. Updated every refresh.
#TeamWinFinalAdvanceFair
1
Spain
31.9%44.1%100%$3.132
Argentina
20.5%32.9%100%$4.873
England
12.9%24.3%100%$7.754
France
9.3%18.7%100%$10.805
Colombia
5.0%12.4%100%$19.886
Portugal
4.9%11.8%100%$20.497
Norway
2.3%7.0%100%$43.678
Mexico
2.0%6.0%100%$49.269
Belgium
1.6%4.9%100%$64.1010
Croatia
1.5%4.3%100%$67.5711
Brazil
1.3%4.5%100%$76.9212
Ecuador
1.1%4.2%100%$88.5013
Switzerland
1.1%3.7%100%$95.2414
Morocco
0.8%3.3%100%$120.4815
Netherlands
0.8%3.5%100%$129.8716
Germany
0.7%3.1%100%$135.1417
Japan
0.6%2.3%100%$161.2918
Austria
0.5%2.0%100%$212.7719
Senegal
0.4%2.0%100%$232.5620
United States
0.2%0.8%100%$454.5521
Paraguay
0.1%0.8%100%$714.2922
Canada
0.1%0.6%100%$1428.5723
Australia
0.1%0.7%100%$1428.5724
Ivory Coast
0.1%0.4%100%$1428.5725
Egypt
0.1%0.3%100%$1666.6726
Algeria
0.1%0.7%100%$1666.6727
Sweden
0.0%0.3%100%$3333.3328
Congo DR
0.0%0.3%100%$3333.3329
Czechia
0.0%0.0%0%—30
South Korea
0.0%0.0%0%—31
South Africa
0.0%0.0%100%—32
Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.0%0.1%100%—33
Qatar
0.0%0.0%0%—34
Scotland
0.0%0.0%0%—35
Haiti
0.0%0.0%0%—36
Türkiye
0.0%0.0%0%—37
Curaçao
0.0%0.0%0%—38
Tunisia
0.0%0.0%0%—39
Iran
0.0%0.0%0%—40
New Zealand
0.0%0.0%0%—41
Uruguay
0.0%0.0%0%—42
Saudi Arabia
0.0%0.0%0%—43
Cape Verde
0.0%0.1%100%—44
Iraq
0.0%0.0%0%—45
Jordan
0.0%0.0%0%—46
Uzbekistan
0.0%0.0%0%—47
Panama
0.0%0.0%0%—48
Ghana
0.0%0.0%100%—How it works. Team strength is an Elo rating, seeded pre-tournament and replayed through every result so far. Each match's goals are modelled with a Dixon-Coles distribution, and the remaining group games plus a randomised knockout draw are simulated 10,000 times. Win = lift the trophy, Final = reach the final, Advance = reach the knockouts.