Title race
Champion probability from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament. Updated every refresh.
#TeamWinFinalAdvanceFair
1
Argentina
23.7%34.6%96%$4.222
France
18.4%29.2%99%$5.443
Spain
13.8%23.5%99%$7.234
England
8.3%16.5%98%$12.005
Portugal
8.1%15.5%98%$12.336
Brazil
4.8%10.4%96%$20.707
Belgium
4.3%10.0%97%$23.268
Germany
2.4%6.4%95%$41.159
Netherlands
2.4%6.8%91%$41.3210
Colombia
2.0%5.4%91%$50.7611
Croatia
1.8%4.8%88%$54.6412
Morocco
1.6%4.9%90%$64.1013
Uruguay
1.4%4.0%87%$72.4614
Switzerland
1.1%3.5%88%$88.5015
United States
0.7%2.4%98%$151.5216
Mexico
0.6%2.6%97%$166.6717
Norway
0.6%2.1%72%$166.6718
Senegal
0.6%2.0%70%$169.4919
South Korea
0.5%1.8%96%$181.8220
Türkiye
0.4%1.3%78%$263.1621
Ecuador
0.3%1.4%80%$333.3322
Egypt
0.3%1.1%77%$333.3323
Sweden
0.3%1.1%68%$400.0024
Austria
0.3%1.0%57%$400.0025
Ivory Coast
0.2%0.9%73%$416.6726
Canada
0.2%0.7%68%$476.1927
Japan
0.1%0.8%67%$714.2928
Algeria
0.1%0.8%53%$714.2929
Czechia
0.1%0.8%61%$833.3330
Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.1%0.7%69%$833.3331
Iran
0.1%0.7%71%$833.3332
Scotland
0.1%0.5%62%$1250.0033
Australia
0.0%0.4%63%$3333.3334
Qatar
0.0%0.1%46%$5000.0035
Tunisia
0.0%0.2%49%$5000.0036
Saudi Arabia
0.0%0.2%40%$5000.0037
Congo DR
0.0%0.1%38%$5000.0038
Panama
0.0%0.2%39%$5000.0039
Paraguay
0.0%0.1%33%$10000.0040
Cape Verde
0.0%0.1%34%$10000.0041
Iraq
0.0%0.1%24%$10000.0042
South Africa
0.0%0.0%22%—43
Haiti
0.0%0.0%22%—44
Curaçao
0.0%0.0%25%—45
New Zealand
0.0%0.0%24%—46
Jordan
0.0%0.0%36%—47
Uzbekistan
0.0%0.1%34%—48
Ghana
0.0%0.2%40%—How it works.Team strength is an Elo rating, seeded pre-tournament and replayed through every result so far. Each match's goals are modelled with a Dixon-Coles distribution, and the remaining group games plus a randomised knockout draw are simulated 10,000 times. Win = lift the trophy, Final = reach the final, Advance = reach the knockouts.