Title race

Champion probability from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament. Updated every refresh.

#TeamWinFinalAdvanceFair

1

Spain

32.1%44.2%100%$3.11

2

Argentina

20.1%33.1%100%$4.98

3

England

13.4%24.5%100%$7.47

4

France

9.7%19.4%100%$10.35

5

Portugal

5.0%11.7%100%$20.04

6

Colombia

5.0%12.0%100%$20.16

7

Norway

2.1%6.7%100%$47.85

8

Mexico

1.7%5.9%100%$57.47

9

Belgium

1.6%5.5%100%$63.29

10

Ecuador

1.3%4.1%100%$80.00

11

Croatia

1.2%4.2%100%$80.65

12

Brazil

1.2%4.4%100%$83.33

13

Switzerland

1.2%3.9%100%$85.47

14

Morocco

1.0%3.5%100%$104.17

15

Netherlands

0.8%3.4%100%$120.48

16

Germany

0.8%2.9%100%$133.33

17

Japan

0.5%2.2%100%$200.00

18

Senegal

0.4%2.0%100%$232.56

19

Austria

0.4%1.8%100%$270.27

20

Paraguay

0.1%0.8%100%$769.23

21

United States

0.1%0.7%100%$769.23

22

Algeria

0.1%0.6%100%$909.09

23

Canada

0.1%0.7%100%$1111.11

24

Australia

0.1%0.6%100%$1666.67

25

Egypt

0.1%0.3%100%$2000.00

26

Ivory Coast

0.0%0.3%100%$2500.00

27

Sweden

0.0%0.3%100%$2500.00

28

Congo DR

0.0%0.4%100%$5000.00

29

Czechia

0.0%0.0%0%—

30

South Korea

0.0%0.0%0%—

31

South Africa

0.0%0.0%100%—

32

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0.0%0.1%100%—

33

Qatar

0.0%0.0%0%—

34

Scotland

0.0%0.0%0%—

35

Haiti

0.0%0.0%0%—

36

Türkiye

0.0%0.0%0%—

37

Curaçao

0.0%0.0%0%—

38

Tunisia

0.0%0.0%0%—

39

Iran

0.0%0.0%0%—

40

New Zealand

0.0%0.0%0%—

41

Uruguay

0.0%0.0%0%—

42

Saudi Arabia

0.0%0.0%0%—

43

Cape Verde

0.0%0.0%100%—

44

Iraq

0.0%0.0%0%—

45

Jordan

0.0%0.0%0%—

46

Uzbekistan

0.0%0.0%0%—

47

Panama

0.0%0.0%0%—

48

Ghana

0.0%0.0%100%—

How it works.Team strength is an Elo rating, seeded pre-tournament and replayed through every result so far. Each match's goals are modelled with a Dixon-Coles distribution, and the remaining group games plus a randomised knockout draw are simulated 10,000 times. Win = lift the trophy, Final = reach the final, Advance = reach the knockouts.