FIFA World Cup 2026 · live model
Every match, decoded.
Win probabilities, recommended bets and same-game multis for all 104 World Cup fixtures — priced by a Dixon-Coles goals model and 10,000 tournament simulations. Updated continuously.
Title favourite
Argentina24.0%to lift it
$4.16
$4.16
Matches
104
4 played
Upcoming
100
scheduled
Teams
48
12 groups
Simulations
10,000
per refresh
Next up
Group Bin 5h
Qatar
SwitzerlandQAT 17%Draw 24%SUI 59%
PickSwitzerland to win$1.69
Group Cin 8h
Brazil
MoroccoBRA 56%Draw 25%MAR 19%
PickBrazil to win$1.77
Group Cin 11h
Haiti
ScotlandHAI 18%Draw 25%SCO 57%
PickScotland to win$1.75
Group Din 14h
Australia
TürkiyeAUS 31%Draw 27%TUR 42%
PickTürkiye to win$2.40
Group Ein 1d
Germany
CuraçaoGER 83%Draw 14%CUW 3%
PickGermany to win$1.21
Group Fin 1d
Netherlands
JapanNED 58%Draw 25%JPN 18%
PickNetherlands to win$1.73
Title race
1
Argentina
24.0%$4.162
France
17.4%$5.753
Spain
14.9%$6.724
Brazil
10.3%$9.685
England
6.0%$16.586
Netherlands
5.9%$16.867
Portugal
5.5%$18.058
Germany
3.8%$26.469
Belgium
2.8%$36.1010
Colombia
1.5%$67.57BeitaBets calls
Highest-conviction model picks
JOR v ARG
Argentina to win
$1.14
88% · high
FRA v IRQ
France to win
$1.16
86% · high
ESP v CPV
Spain to win
$1.17
86% · high
BRA v HAI
Brazil to win
$1.17
86% · high
ESP v KSA
Spain to win
$1.17
85% · high
GER v CUW
Germany to win
$1.21
83% · high
ARG v ALG
Argentina to win
$1.23
82% · high
NZL v BEL
Belgium to win
$1.24
80% · high