BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group KSun, 28 June · 9:30 am AEST

Colombia

COL

9:30 am

Miami Gardens, Florida

Portugal

POR

Win probability

Colombia

25%

fair $4.03

$3.50 -13.2%

Draw

27%

fair $3.76

$3.35 -11.0%

Portugal

49%

fair $2.06

$2.20 +7.0%

Expected goals

1.04 – 1.56

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

52%

Supremacy

-0.51

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

COL v POR

Sun, 28 June

+Colombia to win25%
+Not both teams to score48%
+Colombia clean sheet21%

Combined (true price)

$7.67

13%

to land

Colombia to win + Not both teams to score + Colombia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +417%): the true price is 13% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Portugal to win

medium · 49%$2.06

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.7%

0–1

11.0%

1–2

9.4%

0–2

9.0%

0–0

8.0%

1–0

7.1%

All markets

Match Result

Colombia to win

model 24.8%· DraftKings $3.50 (-13.2%)

$4.03

Draw

model 26.6%· DraftKings $3.35 (-11.0%)

$3.76

Portugal to win

model 48.6%· DraftKings $2.20 (+7.0%)

$2.06

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.45

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 51.7%

$1.93

Not both teams to score

model 48.3%

$2.07

Double Chance

Colombia or Draw

model 51.4%

$1.95

Either team (no draw)

model 73.4%

$1.36

Draw or Portugal

model 75.2%

$1.33

Result & BTTS

Colombia win & BTTS

model 11.8%

$8.51

Portugal win & BTTS

model 21.4%

$4.67

Team Total

Colombia over 0.5

model 64.8%

$1.54

Portugal over 0.5

model 78.9%

$1.27

Colombia over 1.5

model 28.0%

$3.57

Portugal over 1.5

model 46.1%

$2.17

Colombia over 2.5

model 8.8%

$11.32

Portugal over 2.5

model 20.6%

$4.86

Winning Margin

Colombia by 2+

model 9.4%

$10.62

Colombia by 3+

model 2.7%

$37.08

Portugal by 2+

model 25.4%

$3.94

Portugal by 3+

model 10.4%

$9.64

Clean Sheet

Colombia clean sheet

model 21.1%

$4.75

Portugal clean sheet

model 35.2%

$2.84

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.