BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HSat, 27 June · 10:00 am AEST

Uruguay

URU

10:00 am

Guadalajara

Spain

ESP

Win probability

Uruguay

19%

fair $5.39

$5.50 +2.0%

Draw

25%

fair $4.04

$4.00 -1.1%

Spain

57%

fair $1.76

$1.65 -6.7%

Expected goals

0.89 – 1.73

Total goals

2.62

Over 2.5: 49%

Both to score

49%

Supremacy

-0.84

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Uruguay out:Jose Gimenez (?)

Spain out:Fermin LopezMikel Merino (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

URU v ESP

Sat, 27 June

+Uruguay to win19%
+Over 1.5 goals74%
+Uruguay over 1.522%

Combined (true price)

$7.92

13%

to land

Uruguay to win + Over 1.5 goals + Uruguay over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +311%): the true price is 13% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Spain to win

medium · 57%$1.76

Most likely scorelines

0–1

12.1%

1–1

11.8%

0–2

10.9%

1–2

9.7%

0–0

7.9%

0–3

6.3%

All markets

Match Result

Uruguay to win

model 18.5%· DraftKings $5.50 (+2.0%)

$5.39

Draw

model 24.7%· DraftKings $4.00 (-1.1%)

$4.04

Spain to win

model 56.7%· DraftKings $1.65 (-6.7%)

$1.76

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.1%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.9%

$12.74

Over 1.5 goals

model 74.2%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 25.8%

$3.87

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.6%

$2.06

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.4%

$1.95

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.8%

$3.73

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.2%

$1.37

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.5%

$7.99

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.5%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 49.0%

$2.04

Not both teams to score

model 51.0%

$1.96

Double Chance

Uruguay or Draw

model 43.3%

$2.31

Either team (no draw)

model 75.3%

$1.33

Draw or Spain

model 81.5%

$1.23

Result & BTTS

Uruguay win & BTTS

model 8.7%

$11.53

Spain win & BTTS

model 23.4%

$4.27

Team Total

Uruguay over 0.5

model 58.9%

$1.70

Spain over 0.5

model 82.3%

$1.22

Uruguay over 1.5

model 22.3%

$4.48

Spain over 1.5

model 51.6%

$1.94

Uruguay over 2.5

model 6.1%

$16.42

Spain over 2.5

model 25.1%

$3.99

Winning Margin

Uruguay by 2+

model 6.2%

$16.13

Uruguay by 3+

model 1.5%

$65.02

Spain by 2+

model 32.2%

$3.11

Spain by 3+

model 14.5%

$6.92

Clean Sheet

Uruguay clean sheet

model 17.7%

$5.64

Spain clean sheet

model 41.1%

$2.43

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.