BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HSat, 27 June · 10:00 am AEST

Cape Verde

CPV

10:00 am

Houston, Texas

Saudi Arabia

KSA

Win probability

Cape Verde

34%

fair $2.98

$2.50 -16.2%

Draw

28%

fair $3.62

$3.75 +3.5%

Saudi Arabia

39%

fair $2.57

$2.65 +3.0%

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.36

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

-0.11

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

CPV v KSA

Sat, 27 June

+Cape Verde to win34%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Cape Verde clean sheet26%

Combined (true price)

$5.65

18%

to land

Cape Verde to win + Not both teams to score + Cape Verde clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +340%): the true price is 18% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Saudi Arabia to win

low · 39%$2.57

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.2%

0–1

9.5%

1–0

8.6%

1–2

8.5%

0–0

8.1%

2–1

7.8%

All markets

Match Result

Cape Verde to win

model 33.5%· DraftKings $2.50 (-16.2%)

$2.98

Draw

model 27.6%· DraftKings $3.75 (+3.5%)

$3.62

Saudi Arabia to win

model 38.9%· DraftKings $2.65 (+3.0%)

$2.57

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.9%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.1%

$12.42

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 53.5%

$1.87

Not both teams to score

model 46.5%

$2.15

Double Chance

Cape Verde or Draw

model 61.1%

$1.64

Either team (no draw)

model 72.4%

$1.38

Draw or Saudi Arabia

model 66.5%

$1.50

Result & BTTS

Cape Verde win & BTTS

model 15.8%

$6.31

Saudi Arabia win & BTTS

model 18.1%

$5.53

Team Total

Cape Verde over 0.5

model 71.1%

$1.41

Saudi Arabia over 0.5

model 74.3%

$1.35

Cape Verde over 1.5

model 35.3%

$2.83

Saudi Arabia over 1.5

model 39.3%

$2.54

Cape Verde over 2.5

model 13.0%

$7.70

Saudi Arabia over 2.5

model 15.6%

$6.40

Winning Margin

Cape Verde by 2+

model 14.6%

$6.84

Cape Verde by 3+

model 4.9%

$20.45

Saudi Arabia by 2+

model 18.2%

$5.50

Saudi Arabia by 3+

model 6.6%

$15.21

Clean Sheet

Cape Verde clean sheet

model 25.7%

$3.89

Saudi Arabia clean sheet

model 28.9%

$3.47

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.