BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group GSat, 27 June · 1:00 pm AEST

Egypt

EGY

1:00 pm

Seattle, Washington

Iran

IRN

Win probability

Egypt

40%

fair $2.53

$2.30 -9.0%

Draw

28%

fair $3.63

$3.05 -15.9%

Iran

33%

fair $3.04

$3.65 +20.0%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.23

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

+0.14

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

EGY v IRN

Sat, 27 June

+Iran to win33%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Iran clean sheet25%

Combined (true price)

$5.77

17%

to land

Iran to win + Not both teams to score + Iran clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +346%): the true price is 17% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Egypt to win

low · 40%$2.53

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.1%

1–0

9.6%

2–1

8.6%

0–1

8.5%

0–0

8.1%

1–2

7.7%

All markets

Match Result

Egypt to win

model 39.6%· DraftKings $2.30 (-9.0%)

$2.53

Draw

model 27.6%· DraftKings $3.05 (-15.9%)

$3.63

Iran to win

model 32.9%· DraftKings $3.65 (+20.0%)

$3.04

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.9%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.1%

$12.42

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 53.4%

$1.87

Not both teams to score

model 46.6%

$2.15

Double Chance

Egypt or Draw

model 67.1%

$1.49

Either team (no draw)

model 72.4%

$1.38

Draw or Iran

model 60.4%

$1.65

Result & BTTS

Egypt win & BTTS

model 18.3%

$5.45

Iran win & BTTS

model 15.6%

$6.43

Team Total

Egypt over 0.5

model 74.6%

$1.34

Iran over 0.5

model 70.7%

$1.41

Egypt over 1.5

model 39.8%

$2.51

Iran over 1.5

model 34.8%

$2.88

Egypt over 2.5

model 16.0%

$6.26

Iran over 2.5

model 12.7%

$7.89

Winning Margin

Egypt by 2+

model 18.6%

$5.36

Egypt by 3+

model 6.8%

$14.69

Iran by 2+

model 14.2%

$7.04

Iran by 3+

model 4.7%

$21.26

Clean Sheet

Egypt clean sheet

model 29.3%

$3.42

Iran clean sheet

model 25.4%

$3.94

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.