BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group ISat, 27 June · 5:00 am AEST

Norway

NOR

5:00 am

Foxborough, Massachusetts

France

FRA

Win probability

Norway

13%

fair $7.62

$4.30 -43.6%

Draw

24%

fair $4.25

$3.65 -14.1%

France

63%

fair $1.58

$1.87 +18.4%

Expected goals

0.67 – 1.77

Total goals

2.45

Over 2.5: 44%

Both to score

41%

Supremacy

-1.10

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

France out:Hugo Ekitike

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

NOR v FRA

Sat, 27 June

+Over 2.5 goals44%
+Both teams to score41%
+Norway over 1.515%

Combined (true price)

$8.21

12%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Norway over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +355%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

France to win

high · 63%$1.58

Most likely scorelines

0–1

14.8%

0–2

13.6%

1–1

10.9%

1–2

9.2%

0–0

9.2%

0–3

8.1%

All markets

Match Result

Norway to win

model 13.1%· DraftKings $4.30 (-43.6%)

$7.62

Draw

model 23.5%· DraftKings $3.65 (-14.1%)

$4.25

France to win

model 63.3%· DraftKings $1.87 (+18.4%)

$1.58

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 90.8%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 9.2%

$10.91

Over 1.5 goals

model 70.7%

$1.41

Under 1.5 goals

model 29.3%

$3.41

Over 2.5 goals

model 44.3%

$2.26

Under 2.5 goals

model 55.7%

$1.79

Over 3.5 goals

model 23.1%

$4.32

Under 3.5 goals

model 76.9%

$1.30

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.2%

$9.81

Under 4.5 goals

model 89.8%

$1.11

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 41.2%

$2.43

Not both teams to score

model 58.8%

$1.70

Double Chance

Norway or Draw

model 36.7%

$2.73

Either team (no draw)

model 76.5%

$1.31

Draw or France

model 86.9%

$1.15

Result & BTTS

Norway win & BTTS

model 5.3%

$18.78

France win & BTTS

model 21.5%

$4.65

Team Total

Norway over 0.5

model 49.0%

$2.04

France over 0.5

model 83.0%

$1.20

Norway over 1.5

model 14.7%

$6.82

France over 1.5

model 52.9%

$1.89

Norway over 2.5

model 3.1%

$32.27

France over 2.5

model 26.2%

$3.81

Winning Margin

Norway by 2+

model 3.6%

$28.05

Norway by 3+

model 0.7%

$143.71

France by 2+

model 37.3%

$2.68

France by 3+

model 17.4%

$5.75

Clean Sheet

Norway clean sheet

model 17.0%

$5.90

France clean sheet

model 51.0%

$1.96

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.