BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group FFri, 26 June · 9:00 am AEST

Tunisia

TUN

9:00 am

Kansas City, Missouri

Netherlands

NED

Win probability

Tunisia

23%

fair $4.33

$6.50 +50.3%

Draw

27%

fair $3.74

$4.40 +17.7%

Netherlands

50%

fair $1.99

$1.50 -24.8%

Expected goals

0.97 – 1.55

Total goals

2.52

Over 2.5: 46%

Both to score

50%

Supremacy

-0.58

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Netherlands out:Xavi SimonsMatthijs de LigtJurrien TimberJerdy Schouten

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

TUN v NED

Fri, 26 June

+Tunisia to win23%
+Not both teams to score50%
+Tunisia clean sheet21%

Combined (true price)

$7.94

13%

to land

Tunisia to win + Not both teams to score + Tunisia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +409%): the true price is 13% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Netherlands to win

medium · 50%$1.99

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.7%

0–1

11.8%

0–2

9.6%

1–2

9.4%

0–0

8.6%

1–0

7.2%

All markets

Match Result

Tunisia to win

model 23.1%· DraftKings $6.50 (+50.3%)

$4.33

Draw

model 26.7%· DraftKings $4.40 (+17.7%)

$3.74

Netherlands to win

model 50.1%· DraftKings $1.50 (-24.8%)

$1.99

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.4%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.6%

$11.58

Over 1.5 goals

model 72.3%

$1.38

Under 1.5 goals

model 27.7%

$3.61

Over 2.5 goals

model 46.2%

$2.17

Under 2.5 goals

model 53.8%

$1.86

Over 3.5 goals

model 24.7%

$4.05

Under 3.5 goals

model 75.3%

$1.33

Over 4.5 goals

model 11.2%

$8.95

Under 4.5 goals

model 88.8%

$1.13

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 49.6%

$2.02

Not both teams to score

model 50.4%

$1.98

Double Chance

Tunisia or Draw

model 49.9%

$2.01

Either team (no draw)

model 73.3%

$1.36

Draw or Netherlands

model 76.9%

$1.30

Result & BTTS

Tunisia win & BTTS

model 10.5%

$9.50

Netherlands win & BTTS

model 21.0%

$4.77

Team Total

Tunisia over 0.5

model 62.2%

$1.61

Netherlands over 0.5

model 78.8%

$1.27

Tunisia over 1.5

model 25.4%

$3.94

Netherlands over 1.5

model 45.9%

$2.18

Tunisia over 2.5

model 7.5%

$13.29

Netherlands over 2.5

model 20.4%

$4.91

Winning Margin

Tunisia by 2+

model 8.4%

$11.97

Tunisia by 3+

model 2.3%

$44.29

Netherlands by 2+

model 26.3%

$3.81

Netherlands by 3+

model 10.8%

$9.29

Clean Sheet

Tunisia clean sheet

model 21.2%

$4.71

Netherlands clean sheet

model 37.8%

$2.64

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.