BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group FFri, 26 June · 9:00 am AEST

Japan

JPN

9:00 am

Arlington, Texas

Sweden

SWE

Win probability

Japan

29%

fair $3.51

$2.10 -40.1%

Draw

28%

fair $3.59

$3.45 -3.8%

Sweden

44%

fair $2.29

$3.55 +54.8%

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.41

Total goals

2.50

Over 2.5: 46%

Both to score

51%

Supremacy

-0.32

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Japan out:Kaoru MitomaTakumi Minamino

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

JPN v SWE

Fri, 26 June

+Japan to win29%
+Not both teams to score49%
+Japan clean sheet24%

Combined (true price)

$6.40

16%

to land

Japan to win + Not both teams to score + Japan clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +354%): the true price is 16% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Sweden to win

low · 44%$2.29

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.3%

0–1

11.0%

1–2

8.9%

0–0

8.9%

1–0

8.3%

0–2

8.2%

All markets

Match Result

Japan to win

model 28.5%· DraftKings $2.10 (-40.1%)

$3.51

Draw

model 27.9%· DraftKings $3.45 (-3.8%)

$3.59

Sweden to win

model 43.6%· DraftKings $3.55 (+54.8%)

$2.29

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.1%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.9%

$11.28

Over 1.5 goals

model 71.8%

$1.39

Under 1.5 goals

model 28.2%

$3.55

Over 2.5 goals

model 45.5%

$2.20

Under 2.5 goals

model 54.5%

$1.84

Over 3.5 goals

model 24.2%

$4.14

Under 3.5 goals

model 75.8%

$1.32

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.8%

$9.23

Under 4.5 goals

model 89.2%

$1.12

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 50.7%

$1.97

Not both teams to score

model 49.3%

$2.03

Double Chance

Japan or Draw

model 56.4%

$1.77

Either team (no draw)

model 72.1%

$1.39

Draw or Sweden

model 71.5%

$1.40

Result & BTTS

Japan win & BTTS

model 12.9%

$7.75

Sweden win & BTTS

model 18.8%

$5.31

Team Total

Japan over 0.5

model 66.4%

$1.51

Sweden over 0.5

model 75.5%

$1.32

Japan over 1.5

model 29.7%

$3.37

Sweden over 1.5

model 41.1%

$2.43

Japan over 2.5

model 9.7%

$10.26

Sweden over 2.5

model 16.8%

$5.94

Winning Margin

Japan by 2+

model 11.3%

$8.85

Japan by 3+

model 3.4%

$29.55

Sweden by 2+

model 21.2%

$4.72

Sweden by 3+

model 8.0%

$12.54

Clean Sheet

Japan clean sheet

model 24.5%

$4.09

Sweden clean sheet

model 33.6%

$2.97

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.