BEITABETSTrack
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Group DFri, 26 June · 12:00 pm AEST
PAR
Paraguay
PAR
12:00 pm
Santa Clara, California
AUS
Australia
AUS

Win probability

Paraguay
36%
fair $2.75
$2.10 -23.7%
Draw
27%
fair $3.69
$3.35 -9.1%
Australia
37%
fair $2.74
$3.70 +35.3%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.35
Total goals
2.69
Over 2.5: 50%
Both to score
55%
Supremacy
-0.01
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Australia out:Lewis Miller

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

PARPAR v AUSAUSFri, 26 June
  • +Paraguay to win36%
  • +Not both teams to score45%
  • +Paraguay clean sheet26%
Combined (true price)
$5.38
19%
to land

Paraguay to win + Not both teams to score + Paraguay clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +340%): the true price is 19% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Australia to win
low · 37%$2.74

Most likely scorelines

1–1
12.9%
0–1
8.6%
1–0
8.5%
1–2
8.3%
2–1
8.2%
0–0
7.4%

All markets

Match Result
Paraguay to win
model 36.3%· DraftKings $2.10 (-23.7%)
$2.75
Draw
model 27.1%· DraftKings $3.35 (-9.1%)
$3.69
Australia to win
model 36.6%· DraftKings $3.70 (+35.3%)
$2.74
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 92.6%
$1.08
Under 0.5 goals
model 7.4%
$13.47
Over 1.5 goals
model 75.5%
$1.32
Under 1.5 goals
model 24.5%
$4.08
Over 2.5 goals
model 50.3%
$1.99
Under 2.5 goals
model 49.7%
$2.01
Over 3.5 goals
model 28.3%
$3.53
Under 3.5 goals
model 71.7%
$1.39
Over 4.5 goals
model 13.5%
$7.40
Under 4.5 goals
model 86.5%
$1.16
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 55.2%
$1.81
Not both teams to score
model 44.8%
$2.23
Double Chance
Paraguay or Draw
model 63.4%
$1.58
Either team (no draw)
model 72.9%
$1.37
Draw or Australia
model 63.7%
$1.57
Result & BTTS
Paraguay win & BTTS
model 17.7%
$5.64
Australia win & BTTS
model 17.8%
$5.61
Team Total
Paraguay over 0.5
model 73.8%
$1.35
Australia over 0.5
model 74.0%
$1.35
Paraguay over 1.5
model 38.8%
$2.58
Australia over 1.5
model 38.9%
$2.57
Paraguay over 2.5
model 15.2%
$6.56
Australia over 2.5
model 15.4%
$6.51
Winning Margin
Paraguay by 2+
model 16.7%
$6.00
Paraguay by 3+
model 5.9%
$16.85
Australia by 2+
model 16.8%
$5.94
Australia by 3+
model 6.0%
$16.63
Clean Sheet
Paraguay clean sheet
model 26.0%
$3.84
Australia clean sheet
model 26.2%
$3.82

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.