BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group EFri, 26 June · 6:00 am AEST

Ecuador

ECU

6:00 am

East Rutherford, New Jersey

Germany

GER

Win probability

Ecuador

28%

fair $3.59

$4.80 +33.5%

Draw

27%

fair $3.69

$3.90 +5.6%

Germany

45%

fair $2.22

$1.74 -21.5%

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.49

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

-0.37

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Germany out:Marc-Andre ter StegenSerge Gnabry

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

ECU v GER

Fri, 26 June

+Ecuador to win28%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Ecuador clean sheet23%

Combined (true price)

$6.85

15%

to land

Ecuador to win + Not both teams to score + Ecuador clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +389%): the true price is 15% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Germany to win

medium · 45%$2.22

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.9%

0–1

10.4%

1–2

9.1%

0–2

8.2%

0–0

8.0%

1–0

7.7%

All markets

Match Result

Ecuador to win

model 27.8%· DraftKings $4.80 (+33.5%)

$3.59

Draw

model 27.1%· DraftKings $3.90 (+5.6%)

$3.69

Germany to win

model 45.1%· DraftKings $1.74 (-21.5%)

$2.22

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.44

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 52.6%

$1.90

Not both teams to score

model 47.4%

$2.11

Double Chance

Ecuador or Draw

model 54.9%

$1.82

Either team (no draw)

model 72.9%

$1.37

Draw or Germany

model 72.2%

$1.39

Result & BTTS

Ecuador win & BTTS

model 13.2%

$7.56

Germany win & BTTS

model 20.3%

$4.92

Team Total

Ecuador over 0.5

model 67.2%

$1.49

Germany over 0.5

model 77.4%

$1.29

Ecuador over 1.5

model 30.6%

$3.26

Germany over 1.5

model 43.7%

$2.29

Ecuador over 2.5

model 10.3%

$9.75

Germany over 2.5

model 18.8%

$5.33

Winning Margin

Ecuador by 2+

model 11.1%

$8.99

Ecuador by 3+

model 3.4%

$29.58

Germany by 2+

model 22.6%

$4.42

Germany by 3+

model 8.9%

$11.25

Clean Sheet

Ecuador clean sheet

model 22.6%

$4.42

Germany clean sheet

model 32.8%

$3.05

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.