BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group AThu, 25 June · 11:00 am AEST

Czechia

CZE

11:00 am

Mexico City

Mexico

MEX

Win probability

Czechia

30%

fair $3.34

$4.50 +34.8%

Draw

27%

fair $3.66

$3.60 -1.6%

Mexico

43%

fair $2.34

$1.83 -21.7%

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.44

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

-0.27

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

CZE v MEX

Thu, 25 June

+Czechia to win30%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Czechia clean sheet24%

Combined (true price)

$6.36

16%

to land

Czechia to win + Not both teams to score + Czechia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +370%): the true price is 16% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Mexico to win

low · 43%$2.34

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.0%

0–1

10.0%

1–2

8.9%

0–0

8.0%

1–0

8.0%

0–2

7.7%

All markets

Match Result

Czechia to win

model 30.0%· DraftKings $4.50 (+34.8%)

$3.34

Draw

model 27.3%· DraftKings $3.60 (-1.6%)

$3.66

Mexico to win

model 42.7%· DraftKings $1.83 (-21.7%)

$2.34

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.43

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 53.0%

$1.89

Not both teams to score

model 47.0%

$2.13

Double Chance

Czechia or Draw

model 57.3%

$1.75

Either team (no draw)

model 72.7%

$1.38

Draw or Mexico

model 70.0%

$1.43

Result & BTTS

Czechia win & BTTS

model 14.2%

$7.03

Mexico win & BTTS

model 19.5%

$5.12

Team Total

Czechia over 0.5

model 68.8%

$1.45

Mexico over 0.5

model 76.2%

$1.31

Czechia over 1.5

model 32.4%

$3.09

Mexico over 1.5

model 42.1%

$2.38

Czechia over 2.5

model 11.3%

$8.87

Mexico over 2.5

model 17.5%

$5.70

Winning Margin

Czechia by 2+

model 12.4%

$8.07

Czechia by 3+

model 3.9%

$25.57

Mexico by 2+

model 20.9%

$4.79

Mexico by 3+

model 8.0%

$12.58

Clean Sheet

Czechia clean sheet

model 23.8%

$4.21

Mexico clean sheet

model 31.2%

$3.20

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.