BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group CThu, 25 June · 8:00 am AEST

Scotland

SCO

8:00 am

Miami Gardens, Florida

Brazil

BRA

Win probability

Scotland

18%

fair $5.62

$6.00 +6.8%

Draw

26%

fair $3.86

$5.00 +29.6%

Brazil

56%

fair $1.78

$1.47 -17.6%

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.62

Total goals

2.41

Over 2.5: 43%

Both to score

45%

Supremacy

-0.82

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Scotland out:Billy Gilmour

Brazil out:RodrygoEder MilitaoEstevaoNeymar (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

SCO v BRA

Thu, 25 June

+Scotland to win18%
+Not both teams to score55%
+Scotland clean sheet20%

Combined (true price)

$9.67

10%

to land

Scotland to win + Not both teams to score + Scotland clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +428%): the true price is 10% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Brazil to win

medium · 56%$1.78

Most likely scorelines

0–1

13.9%

1–1

12.1%

0–2

11.7%

0–0

9.5%

1–2

9.3%

1–0

6.6%

All markets

Match Result

Scotland to win

model 17.8%· DraftKings $6.00 (+6.8%)

$5.62

Draw

model 25.9%· DraftKings $5.00 (+29.6%)

$3.86

Brazil to win

model 56.3%· DraftKings $1.47 (-17.6%)

$1.78

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 90.5%

$1.11

Under 0.5 goals

model 9.5%

$10.50

Over 1.5 goals

model 70.0%

$1.43

Under 1.5 goals

model 30.0%

$3.34

Over 2.5 goals

model 43.4%

$2.30

Under 2.5 goals

model 56.6%

$1.77

Over 3.5 goals

model 22.4%

$4.46

Under 3.5 goals

model 77.6%

$1.29

Over 4.5 goals

model 9.8%

$10.24

Under 4.5 goals

model 90.2%

$1.11

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 44.6%

$2.24

Not both teams to score

model 55.4%

$1.81

Double Chance

Scotland or Draw

model 43.7%

$2.29

Either team (no draw)

model 74.1%

$1.35

Draw or Brazil

model 82.2%

$1.22

Result & BTTS

Scotland win & BTTS

model 7.5%

$13.40

Brazil win & BTTS

model 20.8%

$4.82

Team Total

Scotland over 0.5

model 55.0%

$1.82

Brazil over 0.5

model 80.1%

$1.25

Scotland over 1.5

model 19.0%

$5.26

Brazil over 1.5

model 48.0%

$2.08

Scotland over 2.5

model 4.7%

$21.25

Brazil over 2.5

model 22.1%

$4.53

Winning Margin

Scotland by 2+

model 5.5%

$18.04

Scotland by 3+

model 1.3%

$79.26

Brazil by 2+

model 30.8%

$3.24

Brazil by 3+

model 13.2%

$7.55

Clean Sheet

Scotland clean sheet

model 19.9%

$5.04

Brazil clean sheet

model 45.0%

$2.22

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.