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Group ITue, 23 June · 7:00 am AEST
FRA
France
FRA
7:00 am
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
IRQ
Iraq
IRQ

Win probability

France
83%
fair $1.21
$1.13 -7.0%
Draw
14%
fair $6.91
$9.00 +30.2%
Iraq
3%
fair $34.44
$26.00 -24.5%
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.25
Total goals
2.46
Over 2.5: 44%
Both to score
20%
Supremacy
+1.96
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

France out:Hugo Ekitike

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

FRAFRA v IRQIRQTue, 23 June
  • +Over 2.5 goals44%
  • +Both teams to score20%
  • +France over 1.565%
Combined (true price)
$6.99
14%
to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + France over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +150%): the true price is 14% vs 6% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

France to win
high · 83%$1.21
Not both teams to score
high · 80%$1.25

Most likely scorelines

2–0
20.9%
1–0
18.7%
3–0
15.4%
0–0
8.8%
4–0
8.5%
2–1
5.2%

All markets

Match Result
France to win
model 82.6%· DraftKings $1.13 (-7.0%)
$1.21
Draw
model 14.5%· DraftKings $9.00 (+30.2%)
$6.91
Iraq to win
model 2.9%· DraftKings $26.00 (-24.5%)
$34.44
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 91.2%
$1.10
Under 0.5 goals
model 8.8%
$11.35
Over 1.5 goals
model 70.6%
$1.42
Under 1.5 goals
model 29.4%
$3.40
Over 2.5 goals
model 44.5%
$2.25
Under 2.5 goals
model 55.5%
$1.80
Over 3.5 goals
model 23.3%
$4.29
Under 3.5 goals
model 76.7%
$1.30
Over 4.5 goals
model 10.3%
$9.70
Under 4.5 goals
model 89.7%
$1.11
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 19.9%
$5.02
Not both teams to score
model 80.1%
$1.25
Double Chance
France or Draw
model 97.1%
$1.03
Either team (no draw)
model 85.5%
$1.17
Draw or Iraq
model 17.4%
$5.76
Result & BTTS
France win & BTTS
model 13.6%
$7.38
Iraq win & BTTS
model 0.7%
$141.98
Team Total
France over 0.5
model 89.0%
$1.12
Iraq over 0.5
model 22.1%
$4.52
France over 1.5
model 64.7%
$1.55
Iraq over 1.5
model 2.6%
$37.74
France over 2.5
model 37.9%
$2.64
Iraq over 2.5
model 0.2%
$462.64
Winning Margin
France by 2+
model 58.2%
$1.72
France by 3+
model 33.2%
$3.01
Iraq by 2+
model 0.3%
$287.39
Iraq by 3+
model 0.0%
$3673.79
Clean Sheet
France clean sheet
model 77.9%
$1.28
Iraq clean sheet
model 11.0%
$9.08

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.