BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HMon, 22 June · 2:00 am AEST

Spain

ESP

2:00 am

Atlanta, Georgia

Saudi Arabia

KSA

Win probability

Spain

79%

fair $1.26

$1.10 -12.8%

Draw

16%

fair $6.09

$11.00 +80.6%

Saudi Arabia

fair $23.41

$23.00 -1.8%

Expected goals

2.12 – 0.33

Total goals

2.44

Over 2.5: 44%

Both to score

25%

Supremacy

+1.79

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Spain out:Fermin LopezMikel Merino (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

ESP v KSA

Mon, 22 June

+Over 2.5 goals44%
+Both teams to score25%
+Spain over 1.562%

Combined (true price)

$5.77

17%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Spain over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +155%): the true price is 17% vs 7% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Spain to win

high · 79%$1.26

Not both teams to score

high · 75%$1.33

Most likely scorelines

2–0

19.5%

1–0

18.1%

3–0

13.7%

0–0

9.0%

4–0

7.3%

2–1

6.3%

All markets

Match Result

Spain to win

model 79.3%· DraftKings $1.10 (-12.8%)

$1.26

Draw

model 16.4%· DraftKings $11.00 (+80.6%)

$6.09

Saudi Arabia to win

model 4.3%· DraftKings $23.00 (-1.8%)

$23.41

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.0%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 9.0%

$11.10

Over 1.5 goals

model 70.3%

$1.42

Under 1.5 goals

model 29.7%

$3.37

Over 2.5 goals

model 44.1%

$2.27

Under 2.5 goals

model 55.9%

$1.79

Over 3.5 goals

model 23.0%

$4.35

Under 3.5 goals

model 77.0%

$1.30

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.1%

$9.90

Under 4.5 goals

model 89.9%

$1.11

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 24.7%

$4.04

Not both teams to score

model 75.3%

$1.33

Double Chance

Spain or Draw

model 95.7%

$1.04

Either team (no draw)

model 83.6%

$1.20

Draw or Saudi Arabia

model 20.7%

$4.83

Result & BTTS

Spain win & BTTS

model 16.1%

$6.21

Saudi Arabia win & BTTS

model 1.2%

$81.97

Team Total

Spain over 0.5

model 87.9%

$1.14

Saudi Arabia over 0.5

model 27.8%

$3.60

Spain over 1.5

model 62.4%

$1.60

Saudi Arabia over 1.5

model 4.3%

$23.38

Spain over 2.5

model 35.4%

$2.82

Saudi Arabia over 2.5

model 0.5%

$221.62

Winning Margin

Spain by 2+

model 54.1%

$1.85

Spain by 3+

model 29.7%

$3.37

Saudi Arabia by 2+

model 0.6%

$155.97

Saudi Arabia by 3+

model 0.1%

$1555.62

Clean Sheet

Spain clean sheet

model 72.2%

$1.38

Saudi Arabia clean sheet

model 12.1%

$8.29

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.