BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HMon, 22 June · 8:00 am AEST

Uruguay

URU

8:00 am

Miami Gardens, Florida

Cape Verde

CPV

Win probability

Uruguay

63%

fair $1.58

$1.44 -8.8%

Draw

23%

fair $4.39

$4.60 +4.8%

Cape Verde

14%

fair $7.11

$7.50 +5.5%

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.76

Total goals

2.63

Over 2.5: 49%

Both to score

45%

Supremacy

+1.11

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Uruguay out:Jose Gimenez (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

URU v CPV

Mon, 22 June

+Over 2.5 goals49%
+Both teams to score45%
+Cape Verde over 1.518%

Combined (true price)

$6.70

15%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Cape Verde over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +281%): the true price is 15% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Uruguay to win

high · 63%$1.58

Most likely scorelines

1–0

13.0%

2–0

12.6%

1–1

10.8%

2–1

9.6%

3–0

7.9%

0–0

7.8%

All markets

Match Result

Uruguay to win

model 63.2%· DraftKings $1.44 (-8.8%)

$1.58

Draw

model 22.8%· DraftKings $4.60 (+4.8%)

$4.39

Cape Verde to win

model 14.1%· DraftKings $7.50 (+5.5%)

$7.11

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.2%

$1.08

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.8%

$12.90

Over 1.5 goals

model 74.3%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 25.7%

$3.89

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.8%

$2.05

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.2%

$1.95

Over 3.5 goals

model 27.0%

$3.71

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.0%

$1.37

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.6%

$7.92

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.4%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 45.5%

$2.20

Not both teams to score

model 54.5%

$1.83

Double Chance

Uruguay or Draw

model 85.9%

$1.16

Either team (no draw)

model 77.2%

$1.29

Draw or Cape Verde

model 36.8%

$2.71

Result & BTTS

Uruguay win & BTTS

model 24.1%

$4.15

Cape Verde win & BTTS

model 6.4%

$15.74

Team Total

Uruguay over 0.5

model 84.5%

$1.18

Cape Verde over 0.5

model 53.2%

$1.88

Uruguay over 1.5

model 55.7%

$1.80

Cape Verde over 1.5

model 17.6%

$5.67

Uruguay over 2.5

model 28.7%

$3.48

Cape Verde over 2.5

model 4.2%

$24.00

Winning Margin

Uruguay by 2+

model 38.0%

$2.63

Uruguay by 3+

model 18.3%

$5.46

Cape Verde by 2+

model 4.2%

$24.06

Cape Verde by 3+

model 0.9%

$111.62

Clean Sheet

Uruguay clean sheet

model 46.8%

$2.14

Cape Verde clean sheet

model 15.5%

$6.47

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.