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Group FSun, 21 June · 2:00 pm AEST
TUN
Tunisia
TUN
2:00 pm
Guadalupe
JPN
Japan
JPN

Win probability

Tunisia
35%
fair $2.82
$5.25 +86.1%
Draw
29%
fair $3.50
$3.70 +5.7%
Japan
36%
fair $2.78
$1.71 -38.3%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.23
Total goals
2.46
Over 2.5: 45%
Both to score
51%
Supremacy
-0.01
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Japan out:Kaoru MitomaTakumi Minamino

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

TUNTUN v JPNJPNSun, 21 June
  • +Tunisia to win35%
  • +Not both teams to score49%
  • +Tunisia clean sheet29%
Combined (true price)
$5.03
20%
to land

Tunisia to win + Not both teams to score + Tunisia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +291%): the true price is 20% vs 5% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Japan to win
low · 36%$2.78

Most likely scorelines

1–1
13.6%
0–1
9.9%
1–0
9.8%
0–0
9.2%
1–2
8.0%
2–1
7.9%

All markets

Match Result
Tunisia to win
model 35.5%· DraftKings $5.25 (+86.1%)
$2.82
Draw
model 28.6%· DraftKings $3.70 (+5.7%)
$3.50
Japan to win
model 36.0%· DraftKings $1.71 (-38.3%)
$2.78
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 90.8%
$1.10
Under 0.5 goals
model 9.2%
$10.87
Over 1.5 goals
model 71.1%
$1.41
Under 1.5 goals
model 28.9%
$3.46
Over 2.5 goals
model 44.6%
$2.24
Under 2.5 goals
model 55.4%
$1.80
Over 3.5 goals
model 23.4%
$4.28
Under 3.5 goals
model 76.6%
$1.30
Over 4.5 goals
model 10.3%
$9.67
Under 4.5 goals
model 89.7%
$1.12
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 50.7%
$1.97
Not both teams to score
model 49.3%
$2.03
Double Chance
Tunisia or Draw
model 64.0%
$1.56
Either team (no draw)
model 71.4%
$1.40
Draw or Japan
model 64.5%
$1.55
Result & BTTS
Tunisia win & BTTS
model 15.6%
$6.42
Japan win & BTTS
model 15.8%
$6.34
Team Total
Tunisia over 0.5
model 70.6%
$1.42
Japan over 0.5
model 70.9%
$1.41
Tunisia over 1.5
model 34.6%
$2.89
Japan over 1.5
model 35.0%
$2.86
Tunisia over 2.5
model 12.6%
$7.95
Japan over 2.5
model 12.8%
$7.80
Winning Margin
Tunisia by 2+
model 15.5%
$6.47
Tunisia by 3+
model 5.1%
$19.42
Japan by 2+
model 15.8%
$6.33
Japan by 3+
model 5.3%
$18.85
Clean Sheet
Tunisia clean sheet
model 29.1%
$3.44
Japan clean sheet
model 29.4%
$3.40

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.