BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group ESun, 21 June · 6:00 am AEST

Germany

GER

6:00 am

Toronto

Ivory Coast

CIV

Win probability

Germany

49%

fair $2.05

$1.56 -24.2%

Draw

27%

fair $3.75

$4.40 +17.3%

Ivory Coast

25%

fair $4.06

$5.75 +41.7%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.03

Total goals

2.58

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

51%

Supremacy

+0.52

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Germany out:Marc-Andre ter StegenSerge Gnabry

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

GER v CIV

Sun, 21 June

+Ivory Coast to win25%
+Not both teams to score49%
+Ivory Coast clean sheet21%

Combined (true price)

$7.66

13%

to land

Ivory Coast to win + Not both teams to score + Ivory Coast clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +413%): the true price is 13% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Germany to win

medium · 49%$2.05

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.7%

1–0

11.1%

2–1

9.4%

2–0

9.1%

0–0

8.2%

0–1

7.2%

All markets

Match Result

Germany to win

model 48.7%· DraftKings $1.56 (-24.2%)

$2.05

Draw

model 26.6%· DraftKings $4.40 (+17.3%)

$3.75

Ivory Coast to win

model 24.6%· DraftKings $5.75 (+41.7%)

$4.06

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.8%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.2%

$12.26

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.5%

$1.36

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.5%

$3.78

Over 2.5 goals

model 47.7%

$2.09

Under 2.5 goals

model 52.3%

$1.91

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.0%

$3.84

Under 3.5 goals

model 74.0%

$1.35

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.0%

$8.32

Under 4.5 goals

model 88.0%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 51.3%

$1.95

Not both teams to score

model 48.7%

$2.06

Double Chance

Germany or Draw

model 75.4%

$1.33

Either team (no draw)

model 73.4%

$1.36

Draw or Ivory Coast

model 51.3%

$1.95

Result & BTTS

Germany win & BTTS

model 21.3%

$4.70

Ivory Coast win & BTTS

model 11.6%

$8.63

Team Total

Germany over 0.5

model 78.8%

$1.27

Ivory Coast over 0.5

model 64.4%

$1.55

Germany over 1.5

model 45.9%

$2.18

Ivory Coast over 1.5

model 27.6%

$3.62

Germany over 2.5

model 20.4%

$4.90

Ivory Coast over 2.5

model 8.6%

$11.57

Winning Margin

Germany by 2+

model 25.4%

$3.94

Germany by 3+

model 10.4%

$9.66

Ivory Coast by 2+

model 9.3%

$10.76

Ivory Coast by 3+

model 2.6%

$37.85

Clean Sheet

Germany clean sheet

model 35.6%

$2.81

Ivory Coast clean sheet

model 21.2%

$4.72

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.