BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group FSun, 21 June · 3:00 am AEST

Netherlands

NED

3:00 am

Houston, Texas

Sweden

SWE

Win probability

Netherlands

41%

fair $2.42

$1.65 -31.9%

Draw

28%

fair $3.63

$4.20 +15.6%

Sweden

31%

fair $3.22

$5.25 +63.2%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.18

Total goals

2.59

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

+0.22

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Netherlands out:Xavi SimonsMatthijs de LigtJurrien TimberJerdy Schouten

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

NED v SWE

Sun, 21 June

+Sweden to win31%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Sweden clean sheet25%

Combined (true price)

$6.08

16%

to land

Sweden to win + Not both teams to score + Sweden clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +357%): the true price is 16% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Netherlands to win

low · 41%$2.42

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.1%

1–0

9.9%

2–1

8.8%

0–1

8.3%

0–0

8.2%

2–0

7.4%

All markets

Match Result

Netherlands to win

model 41.4%· DraftKings $1.65 (-31.9%)

$2.42

Draw

model 27.5%· DraftKings $4.20 (+15.6%)

$3.63

Sweden to win

model 31.1%· DraftKings $5.25 (+63.2%)

$3.22

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.8%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.2%

$12.26

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Over 2.5 goals

model 47.8%

$2.09

Under 2.5 goals

model 52.2%

$1.92

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.1%

$8.29

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.9%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 52.9%

$1.89

Not both teams to score

model 47.1%

$2.12

Double Chance

Netherlands or Draw

model 68.9%

$1.45

Either team (no draw)

model 72.5%

$1.38

Draw or Sweden

model 58.6%

$1.71

Result & BTTS

Netherlands win & BTTS

model 18.9%

$5.29

Sweden win & BTTS

model 14.7%

$6.82

Team Total

Netherlands over 0.5

model 75.4%

$1.33

Sweden over 0.5

model 69.4%

$1.44

Netherlands over 1.5

model 40.9%

$2.44

Sweden over 1.5

model 33.1%

$3.02

Netherlands over 2.5

model 16.7%

$5.98

Sweden over 2.5

model 11.7%

$8.55

Winning Margin

Netherlands by 2+

model 19.9%

$5.03

Netherlands by 3+

model 7.4%

$13.49

Sweden by 2+

model 13.1%

$7.66

Sweden by 3+

model 4.2%

$23.90

Clean Sheet

Netherlands clean sheet

model 30.6%

$3.27

Sweden clean sheet

model 24.6%

$4.07

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.