BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group ESun, 21 June · 10:00 am AEST

Ecuador

ECU

10:00 am

Kansas City, Missouri

Curaçao

CUW

Win probability

Ecuador

62%

fair $1.61

$1.20 -25.6%

Draw

23%

fair $4.30

$7.50 +74.6%

Curaçao

15%

fair $6.79

$13.00 +91.6%

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.77

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

46%

Supremacy

+1.06

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

ECU v CUW

Sun, 21 June

+Over 2.5 goals48%
+Both teams to score46%
+Curaçao over 1.518%

Combined (true price)

$6.58

15%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Curaçao over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +282%): the true price is 15% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Ecuador to win

high · 62%$1.61

Most likely scorelines

1–0

13.1%

2–0

12.4%

1–1

11.0%

2–1

9.6%

0–0

8.0%

3–0

7.6%

All markets

Match Result

Ecuador to win

model 62.0%· DraftKings $1.20 (-25.6%)

$1.61

Draw

model 23.3%· DraftKings $7.50 (+74.6%)

$4.30

Curaçao to win

model 14.7%· DraftKings $13.00 (+91.6%)

$6.79

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.58

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.8%

$1.36

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.2%

$3.81

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 45.7%

$2.19

Not both teams to score

model 54.3%

$1.84

Double Chance

Ecuador or Draw

model 85.3%

$1.17

Either team (no draw)

model 76.7%

$1.30

Draw or Curaçao

model 38.0%

$2.63

Result & BTTS

Ecuador win & BTTS

model 23.7%

$4.22

Curaçao win & BTTS

model 6.6%

$15.10

Team Total

Ecuador over 0.5

model 83.9%

$1.19

Curaçao over 0.5

model 53.8%

$1.86

Ecuador over 1.5

model 54.6%

$1.83

Curaçao over 1.5

model 18.1%

$5.53

Ecuador over 2.5

model 27.7%

$3.61

Curaçao over 2.5

model 4.3%

$23.04

Winning Margin

Ecuador by 2+

model 36.8%

$2.72

Ecuador by 3+

model 17.4%

$5.74

Curaçao by 2+

model 4.4%

$22.63

Curaçao by 3+

model 1.0%

$103.31

Clean Sheet

Ecuador clean sheet

model 46.2%

$2.16

Curaçao clean sheet

model 16.1%

$6.22

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.