BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group CSat, 20 June · 8:00 am AEST

Scotland

SCO

8:00 am

Foxborough, Massachusetts

Morocco

MAR

Win probability

Scotland

17%

fair $5.87

$4.30 -26.8%

Draw

24%

fair $4.17

$3.35 -19.7%

Morocco

59%

fair $1.69

$1.95 +15.2%

Expected goals

0.86 – 1.79

Total goals

2.65

Over 2.5: 49%

Both to score

48%

Supremacy

-0.94

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Scotland out:Billy Gilmour

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

SCO v MAR

Sat, 20 June

+Scotland to win17%
+Over 1.5 goals75%
+Scotland over 1.521%

Combined (true price)

$8.69

12%

to land

Scotland to win + Over 1.5 goals + Scotland over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +328%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Morocco to win

medium · 59%$1.69

Most likely scorelines

0–1

12.2%

1–1

11.4%

0–2

11.4%

1–2

9.7%

0–0

7.6%

0–3

6.8%

All markets

Match Result

Scotland to win

model 17.0%· DraftKings $4.30 (-26.8%)

$5.87

Draw

model 24.0%· DraftKings $3.35 (-19.7%)

$4.17

Morocco to win

model 59.0%· DraftKings $1.95 (+15.2%)

$1.69

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.4%

$1.08

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.6%

$13.11

Over 1.5 goals

model 74.7%

$1.34

Under 1.5 goals

model 25.3%

$3.95

Over 2.5 goals

model 49.3%

$2.03

Under 2.5 goals

model 50.7%

$1.97

Over 3.5 goals

model 27.4%

$3.64

Under 3.5 goals

model 72.6%

$1.38

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.9%

$7.73

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.1%

$1.15

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 48.4%

$2.06

Not both teams to score

model 51.6%

$1.94

Double Chance

Scotland or Draw

model 41.0%

$2.44

Either team (no draw)

model 76.0%

$1.32

Draw or Morocco

model 83.0%

$1.21

Result & BTTS

Scotland win & BTTS

model 8.0%

$12.51

Morocco win & BTTS

model 24.1%

$4.15

Team Total

Scotland over 0.5

model 57.5%

$1.74

Morocco over 0.5

model 83.3%

$1.20

Scotland over 1.5

model 21.1%

$4.73

Morocco over 1.5

model 53.5%

$1.87

Scotland over 2.5

model 5.6%

$17.96

Morocco over 2.5

model 26.7%

$3.74

Winning Margin

Scotland by 2+

model 5.5%

$18.12

Scotland by 3+

model 1.3%

$75.65

Morocco by 2+

model 34.3%

$2.92

Morocco by 3+

model 15.9%

$6.30

Clean Sheet

Scotland clean sheet

model 16.7%

$6.00

Morocco clean sheet

model 42.5%

$2.35

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.