BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group AFri, 19 June · 11:00 am AEST

Mexico

MEX

11:00 am

Guadalajara

South Korea

KOR

Win probability

Mexico

39%

fair $2.58

$2.00 -22.5%

Draw

28%

fair $3.62

$3.35 -7.6%

South Korea

34%

fair $2.97

$4.10 +37.9%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.25

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

+0.11

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

MEX v KOR

Fri, 19 June

+South Korea to win34%
+Not both teams to score47%
+South Korea clean sheet26%

Combined (true price)

$5.64

18%

to land

South Korea to win + Not both teams to score + South Korea clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +339%): the true price is 18% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Mexico to win

low · 39%$2.58

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.2%

1–0

9.4%

0–1

8.6%

2–1

8.5%

0–0

8.1%

1–2

7.8%

All markets

Match Result

Mexico to win

model 38.8%· DraftKings $2.00 (-22.5%)

$2.58

Draw

model 27.6%· DraftKings $3.35 (-7.6%)

$3.62

South Korea to win

model 33.6%· DraftKings $4.10 (+37.9%)

$2.97

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.9%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.1%

$12.42

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 53.5%

$1.87

Not both teams to score

model 46.5%

$2.15

Double Chance

Mexico or Draw

model 66.4%

$1.51

Either team (no draw)

model 72.4%

$1.38

Draw or South Korea

model 61.2%

$1.63

Result & BTTS

Mexico win & BTTS

model 18.0%

$5.54

South Korea win & BTTS

model 15.9%

$6.29

Team Total

Mexico over 0.5

model 74.2%

$1.35

South Korea over 0.5

model 71.2%

$1.40

Mexico over 1.5

model 39.2%

$2.55

South Korea over 1.5

model 35.4%

$2.83

Mexico over 2.5

model 15.6%

$6.42

South Korea over 2.5

model 13.0%

$7.67

Winning Margin

Mexico by 2+

model 18.1%

$5.53

Mexico by 3+

model 6.5%

$15.29

South Korea by 2+

model 14.7%

$6.81

South Korea by 3+

model 4.9%

$20.33

Clean Sheet

Mexico clean sheet

model 28.8%

$3.47

South Korea clean sheet

model 25.8%

$3.88

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.