BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group LThu, 18 June · 6:00 am AEST

England

ENG

6:00 am

Arlington, Texas

Croatia

CRO

Win probability

England

51%

fair $1.97

$1.77 -10.2%

Draw

26%

fair $3.82

$3.95 +3.4%

Croatia

23%

fair $4.34

$5.40 +14.5%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.00

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

51%

Supremacy

+0.60

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

ENG v CRO

Thu, 18 June

+Croatia to win23%
+Not both teams to score49%
+Croatia clean sheet20%

Combined (true price)

$8.22

12%

to land

Croatia to win + Not both teams to score + Croatia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +434%): the true price is 12% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Croatia to win

high · 23%$4.34

Model 23% vs the book's de-vigged 18% ($5.40) — a +14.5% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.5%

1–0

11.3%

2–0

9.5%

2–1

9.5%

0–0

8.0%

0–1

6.8%

All markets

Match Result

England to win

model 50.7%· betfair_ex_au $1.77 (-10.2%)

$1.97

Draw

model 26.2%· betfair_ex_au $3.95 (+3.4%)

$3.82

Croatia to win

model 23.1%· betfair_ex_au $5.40 (+14.5%)

$4.34

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.47

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.82

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 51.0%

$1.96

Not both teams to score

model 49.0%

$2.04

Double Chance

England or Draw

model 76.9%

$1.30

Either team (no draw)

model 73.8%

$1.35

Draw or Croatia

model 49.3%

$2.03

Result & BTTS

England win & BTTS

model 22.0%

$4.55

Croatia win & BTTS

model 10.9%

$9.18

Team Total

England over 0.5

model 79.8%

$1.25

Croatia over 0.5

model 63.2%

$1.58

England over 1.5

model 47.5%

$2.10

Croatia over 1.5

model 26.4%

$3.78

England over 2.5

model 21.7%

$4.62

Croatia over 2.5

model 8.0%

$12.45

Winning Margin

England by 2+

model 27.1%

$3.70

England by 3+

model 11.3%

$8.82

Croatia by 2+

model 8.5%

$11.80

Croatia by 3+

model 2.3%

$42.77

Clean Sheet

England clean sheet

model 36.8%

$2.72

Croatia clean sheet

model 20.2%

$4.95

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.