BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group KThu, 18 June · 12:00 pm AEST

Uzbekistan

UZB

12:00 pm

Mexico City

Colombia

COL

Win probability

Uzbekistan

11%

fair $8.91

$10.50 +9.7%

Draw

21%

fair $4.68

$4.90 +4.6%

Colombia

67%

fair $1.48

$1.41 -4.9%

Expected goals

0.66 – 1.94

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

42%

Supremacy

-1.29

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

UZB v COL

Thu, 18 June

+Over 2.5 goals48%
+Both teams to score42%
+Uzbekistan over 1.514%

Combined (true price)

$8.28

12%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Uzbekistan over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +326%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Uzbekistan to win

high · 11%$8.91

Model 11% vs the book's de-vigged 9% ($10.50) — a +9.7% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

0–2

14.0%

0–1

14.0%

1–1

10.0%

1–2

9.2%

0–3

9.1%

0–0

7.9%

All markets

Match Result

Uzbekistan to win

model 11.2%· betfair_ex_au $10.50 (+9.7%)

$8.91

Draw

model 21.4%· betfair_ex_au $4.90 (+4.6%)

$4.68

Colombia to win

model 67.4%· betfair_ex_au $1.41 (-4.9%)

$1.48

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.1%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.9%

$12.66

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.7%

$1.36

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.3%

$3.81

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 41.7%

$2.40

Not both teams to score

model 58.3%

$1.72

Double Chance

Uzbekistan or Draw

model 32.6%

$3.07

Either team (no draw)

model 78.6%

$1.27

Draw or Colombia

model 88.8%

$1.13

Result & BTTS

Uzbekistan win & BTTS

model 4.8%

$20.83

Colombia win & BTTS

model 23.5%

$4.26

Team Total

Uzbekistan over 0.5

model 48.2%

$2.08

Colombia over 0.5

model 85.7%

$1.17

Uzbekistan over 1.5

model 14.1%

$7.09

Colombia over 1.5

model 57.8%

$1.73

Uzbekistan over 2.5

model 2.9%

$34.32

Colombia over 2.5

model 30.8%

$3.25

Winning Margin

Uzbekistan by 2+

model 3.0%

$33.69

Uzbekistan by 3+

model 0.6%

$177.51

Colombia by 2+

model 42.1%

$2.38

Colombia by 3+

model 21.0%

$4.75

Clean Sheet

Uzbekistan clean sheet

model 14.3%

$6.98

Colombia clean sheet

model 51.8%

$1.93

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.