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Group LThu, 18 June · 9:00 am AEST
GHA
Ghana
GHA
9:00 am
Toronto
PAN
Panama
PAN

Win probability

Ghana
34%
fair $2.97
$2.28 -23.2%
Draw
28%
fair $3.59
$3.45 -3.8%
Panama
38%
fair $2.60
$3.55 +21.4%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.33
Total goals
2.56
Over 2.5: 47%
Both to score
53%
Supremacy
-0.10
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Ghana out:Mohammed Kudus (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

GHAGHA v PANPANThu, 18 June
  • +Ghana to win34%
  • +Not both teams to score47%
  • +Ghana clean sheet26%
Combined (true price)
$5.53
18%
to land

Ghana to win + Not both teams to score + Ghana clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +328%): the true price is 18% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Panama to win
high · 38%$2.60

Model 38% vs the book's de-vigged 28% ($3.55) — a +21.4% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–1
13.3%
0–1
9.7%
1–0
8.9%
1–2
8.4%
0–0
8.4%
2–1
7.8%

All markets

Match Result
Ghana to win
model 33.7%· betfair_ex_au $2.28 (-23.2%)
$2.97
Draw
model 27.9%· betfair_ex_au $3.45 (-3.8%)
$3.59
Panama to win
model 38.5%· betfair_ex_au $3.55 (+21.4%)
$2.60
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 91.6%
$1.09
Under 0.5 goals
model 8.4%
$11.93
Over 1.5 goals
model 73.1%
$1.37
Under 1.5 goals
model 26.9%
$3.71
Over 2.5 goals
model 47.1%
$2.12
Under 2.5 goals
model 52.9%
$1.89
Over 3.5 goals
model 25.5%
$3.93
Under 3.5 goals
model 74.5%
$1.34
Over 4.5 goals
model 11.7%
$8.58
Under 4.5 goals
model 88.3%
$1.13
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 52.6%
$1.90
Not both teams to score
model 47.4%
$2.11
Double Chance
Ghana or Draw
model 61.5%
$1.62
Either team (no draw)
model 72.1%
$1.39
Draw or Panama
model 66.3%
$1.51
Result & BTTS
Ghana win & BTTS
model 15.6%
$6.41
Panama win & BTTS
model 17.6%
$5.70
Team Total
Ghana over 0.5
model 70.7%
$1.41
Panama over 0.5
model 73.5%
$1.36
Ghana over 1.5
model 34.7%
$2.88
Panama over 1.5
model 38.4%
$2.61
Ghana over 2.5
model 12.7%
$7.90
Panama over 2.5
model 15.0%
$6.68
Winning Margin
Ghana by 2+
model 14.6%
$6.85
Ghana by 3+
model 4.8%
$20.65
Panama by 2+
model 17.7%
$5.63
Panama by 3+
model 6.3%
$15.81
Clean Sheet
Ghana clean sheet
model 26.5%
$3.78
Panama clean sheet
model 29.3%
$3.41

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.