BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group JWed, 17 June · 11:00 am AEST

Argentina

ARG

11:00 am

Kansas City, Missouri

Algeria

ALG

Win probability

Argentina

77%

fair $1.30

$1.43 +5.9%

Draw

17%

fair $5.82

$4.90 -15.8%

Algeria

fair $16.69

$10.00 -40.1%

Expected goals

2.16 – 0.45

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

32%

Supremacy

+1.71

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Argentina out:Cristian Romero (?)Nahuel Molina (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

ARG v ALG

Wed, 17 June

+Under 2.5 goals52%
+Not both teams to score68%
+Algeria clean sheet12%

Combined (true price)

$8.72

11%

to land

Under 2.5 goals + Not both teams to score + Algeria clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +182%): the true price is 11% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Argentina to win

medium · 77%$1.30

Model 77% vs the book's de-vigged 70% ($1.43) — a +5.9% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

2–0

17.2%

1–0

15.6%

3–0

12.4%

0–0

7.8%

2–1

7.7%

1–1

7.5%

All markets

Match Result

Argentina to win

model 76.8%· betfair_ex_au $1.43 (+5.9%)

$1.30

Draw

model 17.2%· betfair_ex_au $4.90 (-15.8%)

$5.82

Algeria to win

model 6.0%· betfair_ex_au $10.00 (-40.1%)

$16.69

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.2%

$1.08

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.8%

$12.87

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.7%

$1.36

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.3%

$3.80

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.07

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.78

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.14

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 32.2%

$3.10

Not both teams to score

model 67.8%

$1.48

Double Chance

Argentina or Draw

model 94.0%

$1.06

Either team (no draw)

model 82.8%

$1.21

Draw or Algeria

model 23.2%

$4.32

Result & BTTS

Argentina win & BTTS

model 20.6%

$4.85

Algeria win & BTTS

model 2.2%

$46.04

Team Total

Argentina over 0.5

model 88.4%

$1.13

Algeria over 0.5

model 36.0%

$2.78

Argentina over 1.5

model 63.4%

$1.58

Algeria over 1.5

model 7.5%

$13.42

Argentina over 2.5

model 36.5%

$2.74

Algeria over 2.5

model 1.1%

$93.68

Winning Margin

Argentina by 2+

model 52.2%

$1.92

Argentina by 3+

model 28.7%

$3.48

Algeria by 2+

model 1.2%

$85.93

Algeria by 3+

model 0.2%

$642.23

Clean Sheet

Argentina clean sheet

model 64.0%

$1.56

Algeria clean sheet

model 11.6%

$8.63

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.