BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group IWed, 17 June · 5:00 am AEST

France

FRA

5:00 am

East Rutherford, New Jersey

Senegal

SEN

Win probability

France

65%

fair $1.55

$1.50 -2.9%

Draw

23%

fair $4.33

$4.60 +3.2%

Senegal

12%

fair $8.18

$8.20 +0.3%

Expected goals

1.80 – 0.64

Total goals

2.44

Over 2.5: 44%

Both to score

40%

Supremacy

+1.16

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

France out:Hugo Ekitike

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

FRA v SEN

Wed, 17 June

+Over 2.5 goals44%
+Both teams to score40%
+Senegal over 1.514%

Combined (true price)

$8.76

11%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Senegal over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +370%): the true price is 11% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Under 2.5 goals

low · 56%$1.79

Draw

low · 23%$4.33

Model 56% vs the book's de-vigged 50% ($1.94) — a +3.5% edge. France's attack is depleted — fewer goals than the market expects.

Most likely scorelines

1–0

15.1%

2–0

14.1%

1–1

10.6%

0–0

9.2%

2–1

9.1%

3–0

8.4%

All markets

Match Result

France to win

model 64.7%· betfair_ex_au $1.50 (-2.9%)

$1.55

Draw

model 23.1%· betfair_ex_au $4.60 (+3.2%)

$4.33

Senegal to win

model 12.2%· betfair_ex_au $8.20 (+0.3%)

$8.18

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 90.8%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 9.2%

$10.90

Over 1.5 goals

model 70.6%

$1.42

Under 1.5 goals

model 29.4%

$3.40

Over 2.5 goals

model 44.2%

$2.26

Under 2.5 goals

model 55.8%· unibet $1.94 (+3.5%)

$1.79

Over 3.5 goals

model 23.1%

$4.33

Under 3.5 goals

model 76.9%

$1.30

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.2%

$9.84

Under 4.5 goals

model 89.8%

$1.11

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 40.2%

$2.49

Not both teams to score

model 59.8%

$1.67

Double Chance

France or Draw

model 87.8%

$1.14

Either team (no draw)

model 76.9%

$1.30

Draw or Senegal

model 35.3%

$2.83

Result & BTTS

France win & BTTS

model 21.4%

$4.68

Senegal win & BTTS

model 4.9%

$20.47

Team Total

France over 0.5

model 83.5%

$1.20

Senegal over 0.5

model 47.5%

$2.11

France over 1.5

model 53.7%

$1.86

Senegal over 1.5

model 13.7%

$7.31

France over 2.5

model 26.9%

$3.71

Senegal over 2.5

model 2.8%

$36.06

Winning Margin

France by 2+

model 38.6%

$2.59

France by 3+

model 18.2%

$5.48

Senegal by 2+

model 3.2%

$31.16

Senegal by 3+

model 0.6%

$166.06

Clean Sheet

France clean sheet

model 52.5%

$1.90

Senegal clean sheet

model 16.5%

$6.05

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.