BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group JWed, 17 June · 2:00 pm AEST

Austria

AUT

2:00 pm

Santa Clara, California

Jordan

JOR

Win probability

Austria

58%

fair $1.73

$1.37 -20.8%

Draw

25%

fair $4.08

$5.75 +24.1%

Jordan

18%

fair $5.66

$9.80 +43.2%

Expected goals

1.74 – 0.86

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

48%

Supremacy

+0.89

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

AUT v JOR

Wed, 17 June

+Jordan to win18%
+Over 1.5 goals74%
+Jordan over 1.521%

Combined (true price)

$8.44

12%

to land

Jordan to win + Over 1.5 goals + Jordan over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +329%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Jordan to win

medium · 18%$5.66

Draw

high · 25%$4.08

Under 2.5 goals

high · 52%$1.93

Model 18% vs the book's de-vigged 10% ($9.80) — a +43.2% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–0

12.4%

1–1

11.7%

2–0

11.3%

2–1

9.7%

0–0

8.0%

3–0

6.6%

All markets

Match Result

Austria to win

model 57.8%· betfair_ex_au $1.37 (-20.8%)

$1.73

Draw

model 24.5%· unibet $5.75 (+24.1%)

$4.08

Jordan to win

model 17.7%· betfair_ex_au $9.80 (+43.2%)

$5.66

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.53

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.8%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.2%

$3.82

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%· unibet $2.28 (+9.3%)

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 48.0%

$2.08

Not both teams to score

model 52.0%

$1.92

Double Chance

Austria or Draw

model 82.3%

$1.21

Either team (no draw)

model 75.5%

$1.33

Draw or Jordan

model 42.2%

$2.37

Result & BTTS

Austria win & BTTS

model 23.4%

$4.28

Jordan win & BTTS

model 8.1%

$12.28

Team Total

Austria over 0.5

model 82.5%

$1.21

Jordan over 0.5

model 57.6%

$1.74

Austria over 1.5

model 52.0%

$1.92

Jordan over 1.5

model 21.2%

$4.72

Austria over 2.5

model 25.4%

$3.94

Jordan over 2.5

model 5.6%

$17.86

Winning Margin

Austria by 2+

model 33.0%

$3.03

Austria by 3+

model 15.0%

$6.69

Jordan by 2+

model 5.8%

$17.39

Jordan by 3+

model 1.4%

$72.26

Clean Sheet

Austria clean sheet

model 42.4%

$2.36

Jordan clean sheet

model 17.5%

$5.71

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.