BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group IWed, 17 June · 8:00 am AEST

Iraq

IRQ

8:00 am

Foxborough, Massachusetts

Norway

NOR

Win probability

Iraq

17%

fair $6.00

$18.00 +199.9%

Draw

24%

fair $4.14

$8.00 +54.8%

Norway

59%

fair $1.69

$1.21 -28.4%

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.77

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

47%

Supremacy

-0.94

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

IRQ v NOR

Wed, 17 June

+Iraq to win17%
+Over 1.5 goals74%
+Iraq over 1.520%

Combined (true price)

$9.05

11%

to land

Iraq to win + Over 1.5 goals + Iraq over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +346%): the true price is 11% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Draw

medium · 24%$4.14

Under 2.5 goals

high · 52%$1.93

Under 3.5 goals

medium · 74%$1.36

Model 24% vs the book's de-vigged 12% ($8.00) — a +54.8% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

0–1

12.6%

0–2

11.7%

1–1

11.4%

1–2

9.7%

0–0

8.0%

0–3

6.9%

All markets

Match Result

Iraq to win

model 16.7%· betfair_ex_au $18.00 (+199.9%)

$6.00

Draw

model 24.1%· betfair_ex_au $8.00 (+54.8%)

$4.14

Norway to win

model 59.2%· betfair_ex_au $1.21 (-28.4%)

$1.69

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.54

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.8%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.2%

$3.82

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%· playup $2.35 (+9.4%)

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%· unibet $1.56 (+4.1%)

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 47.3%

$2.11

Not both teams to score

model 52.7%

$1.90

Double Chance

Iraq or Draw

model 40.8%

$2.45

Either team (no draw)

model 75.9%

$1.32

Draw or Norway

model 83.3%

$1.20

Result & BTTS

Iraq win & BTTS

model 7.6%

$13.12

Norway win & BTTS

model 23.5%

$4.25

Team Total

Iraq over 0.5

model 56.3%

$1.78

Norway over 0.5

model 83.0%

$1.20

Iraq over 1.5

model 20.2%

$4.96

Norway over 1.5

model 52.9%

$1.89

Iraq over 2.5

model 5.2%

$19.37

Norway over 2.5

model 26.2%

$3.82

Winning Margin

Iraq by 2+

model 5.3%

$18.93

Iraq by 3+

model 1.2%

$81.08

Norway by 2+

model 34.3%

$2.92

Norway by 3+

model 15.8%

$6.35

Clean Sheet

Iraq clean sheet

model 17.0%

$5.88

Norway clean sheet

model 43.7%

$2.29

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.