BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HTue, 16 June · 8:00 am AEST

Saudi Arabia

KSA

8:00 am

Miami Gardens, Florida

Uruguay

URU

Win probability

Saudi Arabia

16%

fair $6.25

$8.80 +23.8%

Draw

24%

fair $4.23

$4.60 +4.8%

Uruguay

60%

fair $1.66

$1.48 -10.7%

Expected goals

0.82 – 1.81

Total goals

2.63

Over 2.5: 49%

Both to score

47%

Supremacy

-0.99

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Uruguay out:Jose Gimenez (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

KSA v URU

Tue, 16 June

+Saudi Arabia to win16%
+Over 1.5 goals74%
+Saudi Arabia over 1.520%

Combined (true price)

$9.41

11%

to land

Saudi Arabia to win + Over 1.5 goals + Saudi Arabia over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +351%): the true price is 11% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Saudi Arabia to win

high · 16%$6.25

Draw

medium · 24%$4.23

Model 16% vs the book's de-vigged 11% ($8.80) — a +23.8% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

0–1

12.5%

0–2

11.8%

1–1

11.2%

1–2

9.7%

0–0

7.7%

0–3

7.1%

All markets

Match Result

Saudi Arabia to win

model 16.0%· betfair_ex_au $8.80 (+23.8%)

$6.25

Draw

model 23.7%· betfair_ex_au $4.60 (+4.8%)

$4.23

Uruguay to win

model 60.3%· betfair_ex_au $1.48 (-10.7%)

$1.66

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.3%

$1.08

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.7%

$12.91

Over 1.5 goals

model 74.4%

$1.34

Under 1.5 goals

model 25.6%

$3.90

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.9%

$2.04

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.1%

$1.96

Over 3.5 goals

model 27.0%

$3.70

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.0%

$1.37

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.7%

$7.89

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.3%

$1.15

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 47.3%

$2.11

Not both teams to score

model 52.7%

$1.90

Double Chance

Saudi Arabia or Draw

model 39.7%

$2.52

Either team (no draw)

model 76.3%

$1.31

Draw or Uruguay

model 84.0%

$1.19

Result & BTTS

Saudi Arabia win & BTTS

model 7.4%

$13.53

Uruguay win & BTTS

model 24.0%

$4.16

Team Total

Saudi Arabia over 0.5

model 55.9%

$1.79

Uruguay over 0.5

model 83.6%

$1.20

Saudi Arabia over 1.5

model 19.8%

$5.04

Uruguay over 1.5

model 54.0%

$1.85

Saudi Arabia over 2.5

model 5.0%

$19.90

Uruguay over 2.5

model 27.2%

$3.67

Winning Margin

Saudi Arabia by 2+

model 5.0%

$19.91

Saudi Arabia by 3+

model 1.2%

$86.25

Uruguay by 2+

model 35.4%

$2.82

Uruguay by 3+

model 16.6%

$6.03

Clean Sheet

Saudi Arabia clean sheet

model 16.4%

$6.11

Uruguay clean sheet

model 44.1%

$2.27

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.