BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group HTue, 16 June · 2:00 am AEST

Spain

ESP

2:00 am

Atlanta, Georgia

Cape Verde

CPV

Win probability

Spain

82%

fair $1.22

$1.10 -10.1%

Draw

15%

fair $6.63

$14.50 +68.6%

Cape Verde

fair $31.28

$32.00 +2.3%

Expected goals

2.17 – 0.26

Total goals

2.43

Over 2.5: 44%

Both to score

21%

Supremacy

+1.90

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Spain out:Fermin LopezMikel Merino (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

ESP v CPV

Tue, 16 June

+Over 2.5 goals44%
+Both teams to score21%
+Spain over 1.564%

Combined (true price)

$6.77

15%

to land

Over 2.5 goals + Both teams to score + Spain over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +154%): the true price is 15% vs 6% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Draw

medium · 15%$6.63

Under 3.5 goals

medium · 77%$1.30

Model 15% vs the book's de-vigged 6% ($14.50) — a +68.6% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

2–0

20.7%

1–0

18.8%

3–0

14.9%

0–0

9.0%

4–0

8.1%

2–1

5.4%

All markets

Match Result

Spain to win

model 81.7%· betfair_ex_au $1.10 (-10.1%)

$1.22

Draw

model 15.1%· betfair_ex_au $14.50 (+68.6%)

$6.63

Cape Verde to win

model 3.2%· betfair_ex_au $32.00 (+2.3%)

$31.28

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.0%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 9.0%

$11.06

Over 1.5 goals

model 70.1%

$1.43

Under 1.5 goals

model 29.9%

$3.34

Over 2.5 goals

model 43.9%

$2.28

Under 2.5 goals

model 56.1%

$1.78

Over 3.5 goals

model 22.8%

$4.39

Under 3.5 goals

model 77.2%· tabtouch $1.88 (+17.3%)

$1.30

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.0%

$10.01

Under 4.5 goals

model 90.0%

$1.11

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 20.8%

$4.81

Not both teams to score

model 79.2%

$1.26

Double Chance

Spain or Draw

model 96.8%

$1.03

Either team (no draw)

model 84.9%

$1.18

Draw or Cape Verde

model 18.3%

$5.47

Result & BTTS

Spain win & BTTS

model 13.9%

$7.17

Cape Verde win & BTTS

model 0.8%

$125.65

Team Total

Spain over 0.5

model 88.6%

$1.13

Cape Verde over 0.5

model 23.2%

$4.31

Spain over 1.5

model 63.8%

$1.57

Cape Verde over 1.5

model 2.9%

$34.21

Spain over 2.5

model 36.9%

$2.71

Cape Verde over 2.5

model 0.3%

$398.09

Winning Margin

Spain by 2+

model 56.9%

$1.76

Spain by 3+

model 32.0%

$3.12

Cape Verde by 2+

model 0.4%

$249.17

Cape Verde by 3+

model 0.0%

$3027.10

Clean Sheet

Spain clean sheet

model 76.8%

$1.30

Cape Verde clean sheet

model 11.4%

$8.74

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.