BEITABETSTrack
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Group GTue, 16 June · 11:00 am AEST
IRN
Iran
IRN
11:00 am
Inglewood, California
NZL
New Zealand
NZL

Win probability

Iran
58%
fair $1.73
$1.89 +5.4%
Draw
25%
fair $4.08
$3.60 -11.7%
New Zealand
18%
fair $5.66
$5.00 -11.7%
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.86
Total goals
2.60
Over 2.5: 48%
Both to score
48%
Supremacy
+0.89
model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

IRNIRN v NZLNZLTue, 16 June
  • +New Zealand to win18%
  • +Over 1.5 goals74%
  • +New Zealand over 1.521%
Combined (true price)
$8.44
12%
to land

New Zealand to win + Over 1.5 goals + New Zealand over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +329%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Iran to win
medium · 58%$1.73
Over 2.5 goals
medium · 48%$2.08

Model 58% vs the book's de-vigged 53% ($1.89) — a +5.4% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–0
12.4%
1–1
11.7%
2–0
11.3%
2–1
9.7%
0–0
8.0%
3–0
6.6%

All markets

Match Result
Iran to win
model 57.8%· betfair_ex_au $1.89 (+5.4%)
$1.73
Draw
model 24.5%· betfair_ex_au $3.60 (-11.7%)
$4.08
New Zealand to win
model 17.7%· betfair_ex_au $5.00 (-11.7%)
$5.66
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 92.0%
$1.09
Under 0.5 goals
model 8.0%
$12.53
Over 1.5 goals
model 73.8%
$1.35
Under 1.5 goals
model 26.2%
$3.82
Over 2.5 goals
model 48.2%· playup $2.35 (+5.3%)
$2.08
Under 2.5 goals
model 51.8%
$1.93
Over 3.5 goals
model 26.4%
$3.79
Under 3.5 goals
model 73.6%
$1.36
Over 4.5 goals
model 12.3%
$8.16
Under 4.5 goals
model 87.7%
$1.14
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 48.0%
$2.08
Not both teams to score
model 52.0%
$1.92
Double Chance
Iran or Draw
model 82.3%
$1.21
Either team (no draw)
model 75.5%
$1.33
Draw or New Zealand
model 42.2%
$2.37
Result & BTTS
Iran win & BTTS
model 23.4%
$4.28
New Zealand win & BTTS
model 8.1%
$12.28
Team Total
Iran over 0.5
model 82.5%
$1.21
New Zealand over 0.5
model 57.6%
$1.74
Iran over 1.5
model 52.0%
$1.92
New Zealand over 1.5
model 21.2%
$4.72
Iran over 2.5
model 25.4%
$3.94
New Zealand over 2.5
model 5.6%
$17.86
Winning Margin
Iran by 2+
model 33.0%
$3.03
Iran by 3+
model 15.0%
$6.69
New Zealand by 2+
model 5.8%
$17.39
New Zealand by 3+
model 1.4%
$72.26
Clean Sheet
Iran clean sheet
model 42.4%
$2.36
New Zealand clean sheet
model 17.5%
$5.71

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.