BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group GTue, 16 June · 5:00 am AEST

Belgium

BEL

5:00 am

Seattle, Washington

Egypt

EGY

Win probability

Belgium

57%

fair $1.75

$1.66 -5.2%

Draw

25%

fair $4.04

$4.10 +1.4%

Egypt

18%

fair $5.50

$6.00 +4.4%

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.87

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

48%

Supremacy

+0.86

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

BEL v EGY

Tue, 16 June

+Egypt to win18%
+Over 1.5 goals74%
+Egypt over 1.522%

Combined (true price)

$8.16

12%

to land

Egypt to win + Over 1.5 goals + Egypt over 1.5. These legs move together (correlation +321%): the true price is 12% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Egypt to win

medium · 18%$5.50

Model 18% vs the book's de-vigged 16% ($6.00) — a +4.4% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–0

12.3%

1–1

11.7%

2–0

11.1%

2–1

9.7%

0–0

8.0%

3–0

6.4%

All markets

Match Result

Belgium to win

model 57.1%· betfair_ex_au $1.66 (-5.2%)

$1.75

Draw

model 24.7%· betfair_ex_au $4.10 (+1.4%)

$4.04

Egypt to win

model 18.2%· betfair_ex_au $6.00 (+4.4%)

$5.50

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.52

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.8%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.2%

$3.82

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 48.4%

$2.07

Not both teams to score

model 51.6%

$1.94

Double Chance

Belgium or Draw

model 81.8%

$1.22

Either team (no draw)

model 75.3%

$1.33

Draw or Egypt

model 42.9%

$2.33

Result & BTTS

Belgium win & BTTS

model 23.3%

$4.30

Egypt win & BTTS

model 8.4%

$11.90

Team Total

Belgium over 0.5

model 82.2%

$1.22

Egypt over 0.5

model 58.2%

$1.72

Belgium over 1.5

model 51.6%

$1.94

Egypt over 1.5

model 21.7%

$4.61

Belgium over 2.5

model 25.0%

$3.99

Egypt over 2.5

model 5.8%

$17.17

Winning Margin

Belgium by 2+

model 32.4%

$3.09

Belgium by 3+

model 14.6%

$6.86

Egypt by 2+

model 6.0%

$16.68

Egypt by 3+

model 1.5%

$68.31

Clean Sheet

Belgium clean sheet

model 41.8%

$2.39

Egypt clean sheet

model 17.8%

$5.63

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.