BEITABETSTrack
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Group FMon, 15 June · 6:00 am AEST
NED
Netherlands
NED
6:00 am
Arlington, Texas
JPN
Japan
JPN

Win probability

Netherlands
49%
fair $2.05
$2.08 +1.7%
Draw
27%
fair $3.69
$3.70 +0.2%
Japan
24%
fair $4.16
$3.90 -6.2%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.99
Total goals
2.50
Over 2.5: 46%
Both to score
50%
Supremacy
+0.53
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Netherlands out:Xavi SimonsMatthijs de LigtJurrien TimberJerdy Schouten
Japan out:Kaoru MitomaTakumi Minamino

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

NEDNED v JPNJPNMon, 15 June
  • +Japan to win24%
  • +Not both teams to score50%
  • +Japan clean sheet22%
Combined (true price)
$7.59
13%
to land

Japan to win + Not both teams to score + Japan clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +394%): the true price is 13% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Netherlands to win
medium · 49%$2.05

Most likely scorelines

1–1
12.9%
1–0
11.8%
2–0
9.4%
2–1
9.3%
0–0
8.8%
0–1
7.5%

All markets

Match Result
Netherlands to win
model 48.9%· betfair_ex_au $2.08 (+1.7%)
$2.05
Draw
model 27.1%· betfair_ex_au $3.70 (+0.2%)
$3.69
Japan to win
model 24.0%· betfair_ex_au $3.90 (-6.2%)
$4.16
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 91.2%
$1.10
Under 0.5 goals
model 8.8%
$11.36
Over 1.5 goals
model 71.9%
$1.39
Under 1.5 goals
model 28.1%
$3.56
Over 2.5 goals
model 45.7%
$2.19
Under 2.5 goals
model 54.3%
$1.84
Over 3.5 goals
model 24.3%
$4.12
Under 3.5 goals
model 75.7%
$1.32
Over 4.5 goals
model 10.9%
$9.16
Under 4.5 goals
model 89.1%
$1.12
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 49.6%
$2.02
Not both teams to score
model 50.4%
$1.98
Double Chance
Netherlands or Draw
model 76.0%
$1.32
Either team (no draw)
model 72.9%
$1.37
Draw or Japan
model 51.1%
$1.96
Result & BTTS
Netherlands win & BTTS
model 20.4%
$4.90
Japan win & BTTS
model 10.9%
$9.20
Team Total
Netherlands over 0.5
model 78.0%
$1.28
Japan over 0.5
model 62.7%
$1.59
Netherlands over 1.5
model 44.7%
$2.24
Japan over 1.5
model 26.0%
$3.85
Netherlands over 2.5
model 19.5%
$5.13
Japan over 2.5
model 7.8%
$12.82
Winning Margin
Netherlands by 2+
model 25.2%
$3.97
Netherlands by 3+
model 10.1%
$9.88
Japan by 2+
model 8.8%
$11.35
Japan by 3+
model 2.4%
$41.37
Clean Sheet
Netherlands clean sheet
model 37.3%
$2.68
Japan clean sheet
model 22.0%
$4.55

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.