BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group FMon, 15 June · 12:00 pm AEST

Sweden

SWE

12:00 pm

Guadalupe

Tunisia

TUN

Win probability

Sweden

44%

fair $2.25

$1.96 -13.0%

Draw

27%

fair $3.68

$3.60 -2.2%

Tunisia

28%

fair $3.52

$4.60 +18.1%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.13

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

+0.34

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

SWE v TUN

Mon, 15 June

+Tunisia to win28%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Tunisia clean sheet23%

Combined (true price)

$6.70

15%

to land

Tunisia to win + Not both teams to score + Tunisia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +384%): the true price is 15% vs 3% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Tunisia to win

high · 28%$3.52

Model 28% vs the book's de-vigged 22% ($4.60) — a +18.1% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.0%

1–0

10.3%

2–1

9.1%

0–0

8.0%

2–0

8.0%

0–1

7.8%

All markets

Match Result

Sweden to win

model 44.4%· betfair_ex_au $1.96 (-13.0%)

$2.25

Draw

model 27.2%· betfair_ex_au $3.60 (-2.2%)

$3.68

Tunisia to win

model 28.4%· betfair_ex_au $4.60 (+18.1%)

$3.52

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.0%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.0%

$12.43

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 52.7%

$1.90

Not both teams to score

model 47.3%

$2.12

Double Chance

Sweden or Draw

model 71.6%

$1.40

Either team (no draw)

model 72.8%

$1.37

Draw or Tunisia

model 55.6%

$1.80

Result & BTTS

Sweden win & BTTS

model 20.1%

$4.97

Tunisia win & BTTS

model 13.5%

$7.40

Team Total

Sweden over 0.5

model 77.0%

$1.30

Tunisia over 0.5

model 67.7%

$1.48

Sweden over 1.5

model 43.3%

$2.31

Tunisia over 1.5

model 31.1%

$3.21

Sweden over 2.5

model 18.4%

$5.43

Tunisia over 2.5

model 10.5%

$9.49

Winning Margin

Sweden by 2+

model 22.1%

$4.52

Sweden by 3+

model 8.6%

$11.62

Tunisia by 2+

model 11.5%

$8.71

Tunisia by 3+

model 3.5%

$28.35

Clean Sheet

Sweden clean sheet

model 32.3%

$3.09

Tunisia clean sheet

model 23.0%

$4.36

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.