BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group EMon, 15 June · 9:00 am AEST

Ivory Coast

CIV

9:00 am

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Ecuador

ECU

Win probability

Ivory Coast

33%

fair $3.04

$3.85 +15.7%

Draw

28%

fair $3.63

$2.92 -19.5%

Ecuador

40%

fair $2.53

$2.48 -1.9%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.37

Total goals

2.60

Over 2.5: 48%

Both to score

53%

Supremacy

-0.14

model goal diff

BeitaBets recommended multi

CIV v ECU

Mon, 15 June

+Ivory Coast to win33%
+Not both teams to score47%
+Ivory Coast clean sheet25%

Combined (true price)

$5.77

17%

to land

Ivory Coast to win + Not both teams to score + Ivory Coast clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +346%): the true price is 17% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Ivory Coast to win

high · 33%$3.04

Over 1.5 goals

medium · 74%$1.35

Model 33% vs the book's de-vigged 26% ($3.85) — a +15.7% edge. The goals model concentrates probability here more than the market does.

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.1%

0–1

9.6%

1–2

8.6%

1–0

8.5%

0–0

8.1%

2–1

7.7%

All markets

Match Result

Ivory Coast to win

model 32.9%· betfair_ex_au $3.85 (+15.7%)

$3.04

Draw

model 27.6%· betfair_ex_au $2.92 (-19.5%)

$3.63

Ecuador to win

model 39.6%· betfair_ex_au $2.48 (-1.9%)

$2.53

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.9%

$1.09

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.1%

$12.42

Over 1.5 goals

model 73.9%· playup $1.60 (+6.4%)

$1.35

Under 1.5 goals

model 26.1%

$3.83

Over 2.5 goals

model 48.2%

$2.08

Under 2.5 goals

model 51.8%

$1.93

Over 3.5 goals

model 26.4%

$3.79

Under 3.5 goals

model 73.6%

$1.36

Over 4.5 goals

model 12.3%

$8.16

Under 4.5 goals

model 87.7%

$1.14

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 53.4%

$1.87

Not both teams to score

model 46.6%

$2.15

Double Chance

Ivory Coast or Draw

model 60.4%

$1.65

Either team (no draw)

model 72.4%

$1.38

Draw or Ecuador

model 67.1%

$1.49

Result & BTTS

Ivory Coast win & BTTS

model 15.6%

$6.43

Ecuador win & BTTS

model 18.3%

$5.45

Team Total

Ivory Coast over 0.5

model 70.7%

$1.41

Ecuador over 0.5

model 74.6%

$1.34

Ivory Coast over 1.5

model 34.8%

$2.88

Ecuador over 1.5

model 39.8%

$2.51

Ivory Coast over 2.5

model 12.7%

$7.89

Ecuador over 2.5

model 16.0%

$6.26

Winning Margin

Ivory Coast by 2+

model 14.2%

$7.04

Ivory Coast by 3+

model 4.7%

$21.26

Ecuador by 2+

model 18.6%

$5.36

Ecuador by 3+

model 6.8%

$14.69

Clean Sheet

Ivory Coast clean sheet

model 25.4%

$3.94

Ecuador clean sheet

model 29.3%

$3.42

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.