BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group EMon, 15 June · 3:00 am AEST

Germany

GER

3:00 am

Houston, Texas

Curaçao

CUW

Win probability

Germany

72%

fair $1.39

$1.06 -23.8%

Draw

20%

fair $5.00

$24.00 +380.2%

Curaçao

fair $12.28

$61.00 +396.9%

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.51

Total goals

2.48

Over 2.5: 45%

Both to score

35%

Supremacy

+1.46

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Germany out:Marc-Andre ter StegenSerge Gnabry

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

GER v CUW

Mon, 15 June

+Under 2.5 goals55%
+Not both teams to score65%
+Curaçao clean sheet14%

Combined (true price)

$7.27

14%

to land

Under 2.5 goals + Not both teams to score + Curaçao clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +174%): the true price is 14% vs 5% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Under 4.5 goals

medium · 89%$1.12

Model 89% vs the book's de-vigged 55% ($1.75) — a +23.2% edge. Germany's attack is depleted — fewer goals than the market expects.

Most likely scorelines

2–0

16.3%

1–0

16.1%

3–0

10.7%

1–1

8.8%

0–0

8.8%

2–1

8.3%

All markets

Match Result

Germany to win

model 71.8%· betfair_ex_au $1.06 (-23.8%)

$1.39

Draw

model 20.0%· betfair_ex_au $24.00 (+380.2%)

$5.00

Curaçao to win

model 8.1%· betfair_ex_au $61.00 (+396.9%)

$12.28

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.2%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.8%

$11.33

Over 1.5 goals

model 71.2%

$1.40

Under 1.5 goals

model 28.8%

$3.47

Over 2.5 goals

model 45.0%

$2.22

Under 2.5 goals

model 55.0%

$1.82

Over 3.5 goals

model 23.7%

$4.21

Under 3.5 goals

model 76.3%

$1.31

Over 4.5 goals

model 10.6%

$9.46

Under 4.5 goals

model 89.4%· playup $1.75 (+23.2%)

$1.12

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 34.7%

$2.88

Not both teams to score

model 65.3%

$1.53

Double Chance

Germany or Draw

model 91.9%

$1.09

Either team (no draw)

model 80.0%

$1.25

Draw or Curaçao

model 28.2%

$3.55

Result & BTTS

Germany win & BTTS

model 20.5%

$4.87

Curaçao win & BTTS

model 3.0%

$33.39

Team Total

Germany over 0.5

model 86.0%

$1.16

Curaçao over 0.5

model 39.9%

$2.51

Germany over 1.5

model 58.5%

$1.71

Curaçao over 1.5

model 9.3%

$10.77

Germany over 2.5

model 31.5%

$3.18

Curaçao over 2.5

model 1.5%

$66.45

Winning Margin

Germany by 2+

model 46.0%

$2.18

Germany by 3+

model 23.5%

$4.25

Curaçao by 2+

model 1.8%

$56.66

Curaçao by 3+

model 0.3%

$374.76

Clean Sheet

Germany clean sheet

model 60.1%

$1.66

Curaçao clean sheet

model 14.0%

$7.16

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.