BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group DSun, 14 June · 2:00 pm AEST

Australia

AUS

2:00 pm

Vancouver

Türkiye

TUR

Win probability

Australia

26%

fair $3.88

$5.25 +35.4%

Draw

26%

fair $3.84

$3.85 +0.3%

Türkiye

48%

fair $2.08

$1.69 -18.6%

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.60

Total goals

2.71

Over 2.5: 51%

Both to score

54%

Supremacy

-0.49

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Australia out:Lewis Miller

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

AUS v TUR

Sun, 14 June

+Australia to win26%
+Not both teams to score46%
+Australia clean sheet20%

Combined (true price)

$7.73

13%

to land

Australia to win + Not both teams to score + Australia clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +442%): the true price is 13% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets picks

Türkiye to win

medium · 48%$2.08

Most likely scorelines

1–1

12.4%

0–1

10.1%

1–2

9.5%

0–2

8.5%

0–0

7.2%

1–0

6.8%

All markets

Match Result

Australia to win

model 25.8%· DraftKings $5.25 (+35.4%)

$3.88

Draw

model 26.0%· DraftKings $3.85 (+0.3%)

$3.84

Türkiye to win

model 48.2%· DraftKings $1.69 (-18.6%)

$2.08

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 92.8%

$1.08

Under 0.5 goals

model 7.2%

$13.82

Over 1.5 goals

model 75.9%

$1.32

Under 1.5 goals

model 24.1%

$4.15

Over 2.5 goals

model 50.9%

$1.96

Under 2.5 goals

model 49.1%

$2.04

Over 3.5 goals

model 28.8%

$3.47

Under 3.5 goals

model 71.2%

$1.41

Over 4.5 goals

model 13.9%

$7.21

Under 4.5 goals

model 86.1%

$1.16

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 54.1%

$1.85

Not both teams to score

model 45.9%

$2.18

Double Chance

Australia or Draw

model 51.8%

$1.93

Either team (no draw)

model 74.0%

$1.35

Draw or Türkiye

model 74.2%

$1.35

Result & BTTS

Australia win & BTTS

model 12.9%

$7.78

Türkiye win & BTTS

model 22.4%

$4.46

Team Total

Australia over 0.5

model 67.0%

$1.49

Türkiye over 0.5

model 79.8%

$1.25

Australia over 1.5

model 30.5%

$3.28

Türkiye over 1.5

model 47.5%

$2.10

Australia over 2.5

model 10.2%

$9.84

Türkiye over 2.5

model 21.7%

$4.61

Winning Margin

Australia by 2+

model 10.2%

$9.81

Australia by 3+

model 3.1%

$32.63

Türkiye by 2+

model 25.4%

$3.94

Türkiye by 3+

model 10.6%

$9.46

Clean Sheet

Australia clean sheet

model 20.2%

$4.96

Türkiye clean sheet

model 33.0%

$3.03

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.