BeitaBets — World Cup value, decoded

← All fixtures

Group CSun, 14 June · 8:00 am AEST

Brazil

BRA

8:00 am

East Rutherford, New Jersey

Morocco

MAR

Win probability

Brazil

34%

fair $2.98

$1.72 -42.2%

Draw

28%

fair $3.55

$3.90 +5.6%

Morocco

38%

fair $2.61

$6.00 +77.4%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.31

Total goals

2.51

Over 2.5: 46%

Both to score

52%

Supremacy

-0.10

model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Brazil out:RodrygoEder MilitaoEstevaoNeymar (?)

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

BRA v MAR

Sun, 14 June

+Brazil to win34%
+Not both teams to score48%
+Brazil clean sheet27%

Combined (true price)

$5.45

18%

to land

Brazil to win + Not both teams to score + Brazil clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +318%): the true price is 18% vs 4% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Morocco to win

medium · 38%$2.61

Draw

medium · 28%$3.55

Model 38% vs the book's de-vigged 17% ($6.00) — a +77.4% edge. Brazil are missing Rodrygo & Eder Militao — the line is slow to move.

Most likely scorelines

1–1

13.4%

0–1

9.9%

1–0

9.1%

0–0

8.7%

1–2

8.3%

2–1

7.7%

All markets

Match Result

Brazil to win

model 33.6%· betfair_ex_au $1.72 (-42.2%)

$2.98

Draw

model 28.2%· betfair_ex_au $3.90 (+5.6%)

$3.55

Morocco to win

model 38.3%· betfair_ex_au $6.00 (+77.4%)

$2.61

Total Goals

Over 0.5 goals

model 91.3%

$1.10

Under 0.5 goals

model 8.7%

$11.45

Over 1.5 goals

model 72.2%

$1.39

Under 1.5 goals

model 27.8%

$3.60

Over 2.5 goals

model 46.0%

$2.18

Under 2.5 goals

model 54.0%

$1.85

Over 3.5 goals

model 24.5%

$4.08

Under 3.5 goals

model 75.5%

$1.33

Over 4.5 goals

model 11.1%

$9.04

Under 4.5 goals

model 88.9%

$1.12

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score

model 51.8%

$1.93

Not both teams to score

model 48.2%

$2.07

Double Chance

Brazil or Draw

model 61.7%

$1.62

Either team (no draw)

model 71.8%

$1.39

Draw or Morocco

model 66.4%

$1.51

Result & BTTS

Brazil win & BTTS

model 15.2%

$6.57

Morocco win & BTTS

model 17.1%

$5.85

Team Total

Brazil over 0.5

model 70.1%

$1.43

Morocco over 0.5

model 72.9%

$1.37

Brazil over 1.5

model 34.0%

$2.94

Morocco over 1.5

model 37.5%

$2.66

Brazil over 2.5

model 12.2%

$8.19

Morocco over 2.5

model 14.4%

$6.93

Winning Margin

Brazil by 2+

model 14.4%

$6.94

Brazil by 3+

model 4.7%

$21.15

Morocco by 2+

model 17.5%

$5.72

Morocco by 3+

model 6.1%

$16.27

Clean Sheet

Brazil clean sheet

model 27.1%

$3.69

Morocco clean sheet

model 29.9%

$3.35

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.