BEITABETSTrack
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Group CSun, 14 June · 11:00 am AEST
HAI
Haiti
HAI
11:00 am
Foxborough, Massachusetts
SCO
Scotland
SCO

Win probability

Haiti
24%
fair $4.19
$6.40 +31.2%
Draw
27%
fair $3.75
$4.70 +14.8%
Scotland
49%
fair $2.02
$1.57 -22.4%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.55
Total goals
2.56
Over 2.5: 47%
Both to score
51%
Supremacy
-0.55
model goal diff

Team news — feeds the model

Scotland out:Billy Gilmour

Unavailable players adjust each side's attack/defence rating — a depleted back line lifts the goals expectation, a missing striker trims it.

BeitaBets recommended multi

HAIHAI v SCOSCOSun, 14 June
  • +Haiti to win24%
  • +Not both teams to score49%
  • +Haiti clean sheet21%
Combined (true price)
$7.81
13%
to land

Haiti to win + Not both teams to score + Haiti clean sheet. These legs move together (correlation +413%): the true price is 13% vs 2% if you multiplied the singles — shorter, because the same goals drive both legs.

BeitaBets value bets

Haiti to win
medium · 24%$4.19
Draw
high · 27%$3.75
Under 2.5 goals
high · 53%$1.89

Model 24% vs the book's de-vigged 15% ($6.40) — a +31.2% edge. Scotland are missing Billy Gilmour — the line is slow to move.

Most likely scorelines

1–1
12.7%
0–1
11.4%
1–2
9.4%
0–2
9.3%
0–0
8.4%
1–0
7.2%

All markets

Match Result
Haiti to win
model 23.9%· betfair_ex_au $6.40 (+31.2%)
$4.19
Draw
model 26.7%· betfair_ex_au $4.70 (+14.8%)
$3.75
Scotland to win
model 49.5%· betfair_ex_au $1.57 (-22.4%)
$2.02
Total Goals
Over 0.5 goals
model 91.6%
$1.09
Under 0.5 goals
model 8.4%
$11.97
Over 1.5 goals
model 73.0%
$1.37
Under 1.5 goals
model 27.0%
$3.71
Over 2.5 goals
model 47.1%
$2.12
Under 2.5 goals
model 52.9%· playup $2.20 (+7.1%)
$1.89
Over 3.5 goals
model 25.5%
$3.92
Under 3.5 goals
model 74.5%
$1.34
Over 4.5 goals
model 11.7%
$8.57
Under 4.5 goals
model 88.3%
$1.13
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score
model 50.6%
$1.98
Not both teams to score
model 49.4%
$2.02
Double Chance
Haiti or Draw
model 50.5%
$1.98
Either team (no draw)
model 73.3%
$1.36
Draw or Scotland
model 76.1%
$1.31
Result & BTTS
Haiti win & BTTS
model 11.1%
$9.02
Scotland win & BTTS
model 21.2%
$4.72
Team Total
Haiti over 0.5
model 63.4%
$1.58
Scotland over 0.5
model 78.8%
$1.27
Haiti over 1.5
model 26.6%
$3.76
Scotland over 1.5
model 46.0%
$2.17
Haiti over 2.5
model 8.1%
$12.33
Scotland over 2.5
model 20.5%
$4.89
Winning Margin
Haiti by 2+
model 8.8%
$11.32
Haiti by 3+
model 2.5%
$40.78
Scotland by 2+
model 25.9%
$3.87
Scotland by 3+
model 10.6%
$9.44
Clean Sheet
Haiti clean sheet
model 21.2%
$4.73
Scotland clean sheet
model 36.6%
$2.73

Model fair prices shown in lime. Where a live Australian bookmaker line is attached, the edge vs the de-vigged market is shown. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.